Second Half Rankings, Projections, and Dollar Values

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve recently learned and or confirmed two very important facts that set me off onto a project:

• Rest of season projections from reliable projection systems like Steamer and Zips are much more accurate at predicting future performance than current year stats are.
• In most arenas, whether fantasy baseball or in predicting the weather, it’s generally accepted that combining multiple projection sets into one is more accurate than relying upon just one.

With this in mind, I have spent a lot of time in Excel the last few days combining the Steamer and Zips rest of season projections into second half rankings and dollar value calculations.  Over the next few days we’ll be releasing these lists.  Consider this part of your baseball fix that will get us through the All-Star Break.

What You Should Know About These Rankings and Values

• These are based on a 12-team league
• Team positions of C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, Corner IF, Middle IF, five OF, UTIL, and nine P
• Calculations are developed using standings gain points and are based on standard roto categories of BA, R, HR, RBI, and SB for hitters and W, K, SV, ERA, and WHIP for pitchers
• The dollar values include positional adjustments reflective of the replacement level player at each position
• Dollar values are calculated using a $260 team budget and a 70/30 hitter-t0-pitcher allocation
• I confirmed with Dan Szymborski that his Zips projections do not adjust for playing time.  So the playing time estimates come solely from Steamer.

• I converted each projection for the two systems into a per Plate Appearance/Innings Pitched number, averages these two rates together, and then took this composite ratio and multiplied by the Steamer PA/IP projections
• I started this project on July 9th.  And it seems like there have been a rash of significant injuries and injury-related news since then that are not incorporated into these projections, so some manual tinkering will be necessary.  Take the projections for guys like Masahiro Tanaka, Joe Mauer, Adam Lind, Brandon Phillips, and Homer Bailey with a grain of salt.

If you’re comfortable around an Excel spreadsheet, you can do this yourself.  If you’d like to know more about how to calculate your own rankings and dollar values customized for your own league’s settings, I have a package of free guides and resources that will help get you started.