Likelihood of Dee Gordon Mantaining His SB Pace
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Since the season is one-third complete, now seems like as good a time as any to go over the fantasy baseball stats leaders, look at their respective paces, and see how likely it is that they’ll maintain their pace.
What’s the purpose of this? Well, if you’re a fantasy owner of these guys, maybe you want to sell high on these guys. If you’re a possible fantasy owner, maybe you’re wondering if now’s the time to buy, or if they’re due for some regression.
Here, we look at stolen bases and Los Angeles Dodgers speedster Dee Gordon.
Note: Stats are current through conclusion of games on May 31.
- Current SB Total: 34
- Current SB Pace: 97
- The last time someone stole 97 bases in a season? Vince Coleman, 109 in 1987.
- Dee Gordon Career High? 34. He did steal 32 in a little more than a half-season’s worth of plate appearances in 2012 and has stolen as many as 73 in a Minor League Season.
If anyone was going to challenge 100 steals this year, it was going to be Billy Hamilton, right? Well, Hamilton’s not bad at all, but Gordon is in his own world right now. Since the Belmont is next week and we’re talking about running, I feel alright saying that his stolen base lead is Secretariat-like.
I don’t think that’s in danger. If he stays healthy, I feel pretty good saying that Dee Gordon will be your league leader at the end of 2014. Still, I don’t think we’ll be talking about him stealing 100 bases for much longer. Why?
- Gordon’s present .338 OBP is not great, but even that’s well above his career mark of .311. If you’re going to steal, you’ve got to get on base. Now, Gordon can steal two bases every time he does reach, but if he’s not reaching base, things are going to level off a little bit. For a more in depth look at the possible regression of Gordon, read what Billy Moy had to say in May.
- The rest of the Dodgers haven’t exactly been hitting for much power yet this year. Yasiel Puig has been solid all year and Hanley Ramirez is already starting to heat up and as the rest of them follow suit, it’s going to ground the running game. When Gordon steals, he makes it more likely that the hitters behind them will get walked. Now, the depth of the lineup limits that as a factor so I do expect him to still steal a lot of bases, I just don’t think he’ll flirt with 100.
Gordon has blinding speed and he’s a real threat to go every time he reaches base. Still, there’s a reason that nobody’s stolen (or seriously threatened) 100 steals in so long. Gordon may steal more bases than anyone since Rickey Henderson swiped 93 for the Yankees in 1988, but cracking 90 is a little too tall a task…for now.
Projected Stolen Base Total: 80