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Likelihood of Troy Tulowitzki Mantaining His Batting Average

Since the season is one-third complete, now seems like as good a time as any to go over the fantasy baseball stats leaders, look at their respective paces, and see how likely it is that they’ll maintain their pace.

What’s the purpose of this? Well, if you’re a fantasy owner of these guys, maybe you want to sell high on these guys. If you’re a possible fantasy owner, maybe you’re wondering if now’s the time to buy, or if they’re due for some regression.

Here, we look at batting average and Colorado Rockies star Troy Tulowitzki.

Note: Stats are current through conclusion of games on May 31. 

  • Current Batting Average: .352
  • Current Batting Average Pace: .352
  • The last time someone hit .352? Josh Hamilton (.359 in 2010)
  • Troy Tulowitzki Career High? .315 in 2010.

Of all of the fantasy stats leaders, this is by far the most reasonable league-leading pace and if he stays healthy, I think that Troy Tulowitzki can get very close to it. Actually, I think if he stays healthy, he can exceed .352. If you don’t agree with me, that’s fine, but I’d wager that you’ve never seen Tulo on a hot streak, or you don’t remember any of them.

Now, a lot does work against Tulo here. As we see above, he’s never topped .315 in a season, and he’s a .322 hitter at Coors Field. Fine numbers, but a long way from .352.

But, at the beginning of the year, if someone had told you that Tulowitzki would lead the league in hitting, it wouldn’t have been that hard to believe, right? A .352 average might have been a little more challenging to believe, but not much. This is one of the best hitters in the game, after all. Playing in a loaded lineup should also get him plenty of pitches to hit and at Coors Field, that’s a great thing for a great hitter to have.

Now, the biggest issue comes around something that’s been an issue for Tulo since Day 1: Staying healthy. His only chance at hitting .352 is to stay on the field and more importantly, be healthy when there. That’s something Tulo has rarely ever been able to do, so I’d be lying if I said I had a lot of confidence in this. But, two months into 2014 and it hasn’t been an issue, and that’s also a fairly rare occurrence.

All of the negatives combined make me lean towards selling this but again, of all of the offensive fantasy stat leaders, Tulowitzki is by far the most likely to keep his current pace and other than Dee Gordon (steals), is the most likely to continue leading the league. He has a lot more working in his favor than anyone else.

 

Projected Batting Average: .335

Tags: Batting Average Colorado Rockies Fantasy Baseball Stats MLB

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