Last week I talked about how early on in the season is not the time to sell high. This week, we’ll go over the other goal when making fantasy baseball trades, buying low.
While some of the same points apply to buying low, there are other things to consider as well.
Regarding last week the huge similarities are with timing, it is too early to tell and managers are still holding on to hope. Most guys are not ready to give up on their slow starters for especially after only a few weeks of action. If they do end up giving up these guys, they usually won’t give them up for discounts and unless you can get a player at less than face value, you’re not really buying low, are you?
If you end up trading for Billy Butler but you give up Matt Adams for him, you didn’t exactly by low, in fact you might have taken too big a risk. You are taking a risk that Butler will getbetter the rest of the way and while it is probably a safe bet that he will, it isn’t worth giving up a solid bat like Matt Adams.
Billy Butler: He took a step back last year from a career year in 2012. He is off to a brutal start this year, and if he keeps it up — or down as it were — then his asking price should fall.
Billy Butler was being drafted around 115-125 in most leagues, around the same time as hitters like Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, and Brandon Belt. These guys should roughly be your benchmark for price. If you can score Butler for a lesser hitter like Adam LaRoche, Adam Lind, or this week’s hot add Chris Colabello, then I say make the trade and wait for Butler to get going.
Nori Aoki: He’s a bit older and doesn’t have a lot of MLB years to his name but he should be a pretty reliable guy going forward. He is a high contact rate guy like Ichiro and Nori Aoki should get going when he starts to figure the new rotations he is facing.
He was drafted roughly 195-205, around guys like Josh Reddick (who falls on the do not buy low list), Adam Eaton, or Alejandro De Aza. To get good buy low value, you’d need to swap out a guy like Colby Rasmus, Ben Revere, or Dexter Fowler.
Dustin Pedroia: Has had a slower start, injury history, and is being moved all over the lineup trying to find a good fit.
He also was drafted high — in the 20-30 range — so he is probably the best buy low candidate right now. He was being after drafted other 2B’s such as Jason Kipnis, Ian Kinsler, and Brandon Phillips a little while later. I also wouldn’t give up Matt Carpenter or Ben Zobrist to get Dustin Pedroia, but I would consider trading for Pedroia if I could give up a 2B below these guys. Pedroia’s also more likely than most to gut out a good season.
It is certainly can be tough to gauge buy low value. Often times many of your league mates have read the same articles saying whether or not to believe in this guy and to buy low or that him. So you really have to play these things by ear.
I like to have lists of guys that would be an upgrade to my current players that I am shopping at the ready. That when, when a trade poses itself, I am ready to pounce before they can do their research more. It also helps to know league’s specifics rather than basing your ideas off of general articles. That is what Ask Nash is all about, you can ask me with your specifics and I send back an email. Now that we have some basic primer on concepts like sell high and buy low we can dig deep in future weeks!
If you have a question that you’d like to see me address in a future Ask Nash or just need a second opinion on something, please reach out in any of the following ways.