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Ask Nash: Fantasy Trade Advice on a 3B Upgrade

I am in a 10-team ROTO league with 6×6 scoring the scoring categories are the usual categories plus HOLDS & OPS. We have quite large rosters so it’s a pretty deep league. We start the usual positions plus we also start a CI & MI.

With that being said 3rd basemen were flying off the board and unfortunately for me I was shut out of getting guys like Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, David Wright, etc, once I was shut out of the stud 3rd basemen I decided to fill up on OF, pitching and anywhere else. I drafted Nolan Arenado who looks like he will be my everyday 3rd basemen. My question: Is ARENADO a serviceable starting 3B or should I try and wheel and deal ?

As far as the WW goes its pretty light as far as 3B: Anthony Rendon, Matt Davidson, Matt Dominguez, Juan Francisco.

For trade options a team has offered me Adrian Beltre a couple times but his asking price is too high as he basically wants Mike Trout for Beltre. However I do see a possible trade option which is:

I trade – Hunter Pence, Jayson Werth, or Carlos Beltran

HE trades – Josh Donaldson

My OF is pretty solid, so I could give one OF for a solid upgrade at 3B.

Thanks again

Koji

Nash: A few slight edits were made to not hurt “Koji’s” chances in his league.

Koji’s question actually touches on a few situations common to fantasy leagues. He misses out on a run of players all from the same position during his draft. He handles this perfectly by not reaching for the next best at that position but filling out other needs. He then takes a flier on a young player in hopes he will break out as a serviceable or better option. Often when we do this we like to have some insurance like another option off of the waiver wire. Here, Koji is faced with options that are no better or more dependable than his current guy. So he may not be compelled to drop a player to add one of these 3B.

It appears that if Koji wants to upgrade his 3B, situation trade might be the most logical avenue. However Koji has ran into what we in the biz call, a trade terrorist. A trade terrorist is a manager who takes a surplus of one position and holds the extra players hostage for a killer trade.

This manager is hoping that Koji’s doubts in his 3B situation will push him to trade Mike Trout for Adrian Beltre. This is insanity and I suggest you never deal with trade terrorists. Ever!  Luckily Koji has kept his head, and has even found more reasonable options.

Trading any of Pence,Werth, or Beltran for Donaldson would be a solid trade for Koji, especially given his OF situation. Even if you don’t have the OF depth as Koji you simply need to test the coupling principle to this trade to figure out if it truly benefits your team or not.

In this situation the coupling principle would play out like this:

Are Donaldson and the outfield fill in better than Arenado and the current outfield option?

In Koji’s situation he has a surplus of OFs, and so we know he is not losing an active OF, this really swings the deal in his favor because he loses nothing to gain a significant upgrade at 3B. However if you are having to give up an activate player to gain an upgrade elsewhere then you just take the above principle and put it to action:

Arenado + Pence

Player
H/AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
Nolan Arenado156/5666215642.276
Hunter Pence173/61385259515.282
Total329/11791474015917.279

OR

Donaldson + Beltran

Player
H/AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
Josh Donaldson158/5668022815.279
Carlos Beltran141/4946922752.285
Total299/1060149441567.282

Looking at Koji’s potential trade, he may not want to let Hunter Pence go as part of this deal. However, even in this situation, I would say the Josh Donaldson and Carlos Beltran combo is more bankable than Nolan Arenado and Hunter Pence. If Arenado makes good on these projections, than Koji should be fine with him at 3B, however having a guy like Donaldson might allow Koji to rest easier.

Either way, if you  take the time to weigh your options you will be able to gage the benefit of any trade.

 

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Tags: Carlos Beltran Hunter Pence Josh Donaldson MLB Nolan Arenado Outfield Third Base Trading

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