Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Jose Reyes: Evaluating 2014 Fantasy Value of Blue Jays’ SS


Looking back at his numbers from 2012 with the Miami Marlins, it’s easy to see why we were excited about Jose Reyes heading into 2013.

AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
OBP
SLG
64286115740.287.347.433

It was not only exciting because it appeared he’d be leading off in a loaded Toronto Blue Jays lineup, but also considering the lack of reliable, elite shortstops in fantasy baseball today. The key word there is reliable. Going into the 2013 season the Top-5 shortstops were Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Elvis Andrus, Starlin Castro.

Each of these guys had major question marks heading into your drafts and after 2013, those questions marks still remain. They may even be stronger. At the end of 2013 the only two of those players who manage to be rated in the Top-5 on ESPN’s Player Rater were Tulo and Hanley. The fact that they were Top-5 speaks to their skill, but also the lack of depth at that position, as Rulo missed 36 games while Hanley missed just under half of the season.

Reyes, who himself missed 69 games, barely made the Top-10.

I think we actually did a fine job projecting Reyes. Had he stayed healthy he would have come very close to our projected numbers perhaps even exceeded some of them them: 

 
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
OBP
SLG
2013 (Actual)38258103715.296.353.427
2013 (Projected)59594125726.291.344.435

As for 2014, if you use a Third Round pick on Reyes, you can get two possible results. Yes, that’s the case with most players, but Reyes is unique in that the two seem equally plausible, while nothing in between does.

  1. If he still has one stellar season left, he very well could be a great pick if he falls to the Third Round or lower, especially with guys like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion there potentially drive him in.
  2. His health struggles stay healthy and you end up completely wasting a Third Round pick on a guy who misses 40 games or more.Player Profile Hitter

The fact that he’s a shortstop makes his value something of a Catch-22.

  • Reyes playing shortstop does give him a slight edge in fantasy value, just like pretty much any middle infielder.
  • But it is very unlikely that you will find a solid SS replacement if he misses extended time, which is a very real risk.

Reyes should be rated as a Top-25 hitter based upon position and the glimmer of hope that his old self returns and he finds his top stats potential.  It really depends on how many pitchers muddy the early rounds of the drafts.

Personally, if Reyes is available in the Third Round I am taking him.  The reality is this: As long as he stays on the field and gets at-bats, he’s a good enough player to easily get the stats he needs to be a Top-5 SS one more time.  

Jose Reyes: Early 2014 Projections

 
AB
Runs
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
OBP
SLG
BB
K
Jose Reyes56684135332.295.350.4515062

If these projections hold, they warrant taking this aging star as your fantasy shortstop. When building a team it is important to consider what you are getting stats wise and where you are getting them from.

Positions that are once again at a premium are 2B and SS, and so I don’t feel bad reaching a little bit to nab a solid guy at those positions.  Deep positions are OF, 3B, and catcher and so I will wait a little while on those.

The Third Round is probably a good breaking point for some of these decisions.  If it came down to me taking either Jose Reyes, Buster Posey, or Shin-Soo Choo in the Third Round, I would probably error on the thinner position and settle for Wilin Rosario and Norichika Aoki a few rounds later. It’s a much better option than getting stuck with someone like Erick Aybar or Jimmy Rollins at SS, at least in my view.

Tags: Jose Reyes SS Toronto Blue Jays