Nelson Cruz: Slugger’s Fantasy Value Hinges on Where he Signs

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

There were rumors swirling during spring training last season that Texas Rangers slugger Nelson Cruz was connected to a performance enhancing drug scandal. Those rumors turned out to be true and it affected many fantasy team lineups going into the last six weeks of the season.

Fantasy owners did not want to take a chance on a player who could be suspended. He dropped down into the 10th round and beyond in most mixed league drafts.

Going into last season I was adamant about having Cruz on all of my fantasy teams. His draft value was dropping by the week as more facts came out about his involvement in the drug scandal. He had a first half that garnered him his second All-Star Game appearance. His stat line before his suspension was .266/.327/.506 with Texas, hitting 27 home runs in 109 games. His suspension amounted to a player who had an injury and was out for six weeks.

When a player’s draft value plummets and it is not injury related you should take that as a signal to be a buyer and not a seller.

As we look towards the 2014 MLB season, Cruz has a clean slate after serving a 50-game suspension for his connection in the Biogenesis scandal. He is a free agent and according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the New York Mets, Oakland Athletics, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers have shown interest in signing him.

Cruz has interest from multiple teams because hitting for power is a dwindling commodity in baseball. He is going to be underrated once again coming off of the suspension for fantasy league purposes. According to Kristie Ackert of New York Daily News, the New York Mets “may be the early leader for” Cruz’s services. You can’t rule out Texas resigning him or the dark horses Seattle and Oakland coming in with a deal.

A big factor in his production for next season is where he will be playing his home games. Lets take a look at how the home fields of the teams pursuing him in free agency will affect his power. [table id=22 /] *Data Courtesy of ESPN MLB Park Factors

It’s easy to see why the New York Mets may be the front-runner’s for Nelson Cruz. Citi Field ranks tenth in all of baseball in home runs per nine innings. They know what an advantage Nelson Cruz’s power would be at their hitter friendly field. You would see an increase in power and RBI production playing in New York.

He would also have David Wright hitting in front of him if he is slotted into the 4th spot in the Mets lineup. Cruz would easily hit 30+ homeruns a year and drive in close to 100 playing half of his games at Citi Field. Don’t expect a batting average much higher then his .268 career average.

On the flip-side, Seattle and Oakland are dreadful places for power hitters. Numerous players through the years have signed with Oakland and Seattle and saw their power drained like a car battery with the lights left on. Nelson Cruz would hit home runs in the high teens to low 20’s in either one of these parks. He could lose up to ten home runs a season by playing half of his games in Seattle or Oakland.

He will be 34 years old for the upcoming season and he has not shown a decline in ability as some players do at this age. In fact, it appears he is improving as a hitter referenced by his All-Star appearance last season. How much of a factor his PED use at this point in his career is debatable.

If he signs with New York or lands back in Texas, he will be a great bargain on draft day just as he was last season. Owners are going to be skeptical of a player coming off of a suspension regardless of skills. This skepticism will drop him down at least two rounds from where he should be taken.

If he signs with Seattle or Oakland his perceived value could see him drop into the middle rounds of drafts. This is good value but be aware you will not see the production in those two cities that he has produced the past few years in Texas.

Unless you are person who will shun any player linked to performance enhancing drug use, you would be well served putting Nelson Cruz on your list as a sleeper choice heading into this season. Tread lightly if he ends up in Seattle or Oakland. Grab him early if he is playing for the Mets or Rangers, as he might be able to put together another All-Star caliber season for your team at a cheap price.