Fantasy Baseball Third Base Profile: Pedro Alvarez

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve been looking for signs of optimism that Pedro Alvarez – third baseman for the Pirates – will ever hit over .260, but evidence is elusive.

Trust me, I’ve looked. I’ve scoured his numbers in Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs, and even the plucky little guy, Baseball Cube. In a moment of desperation, I even looked to see if there was anything insightful at Bleacher Report. All I found there was a slide show.

So we have the bad news about batting average out of the way. Now let’s take a deeper look at Pedro Alvarez.

WHAT I LIKE

Alvarez has some of the best raw power in the game. There was a reason he was the #2 overall draft pick in 2008.

His scouting report: A strong swing. Lots of strength. Very masculine. Wears Old Spice.

Remember, it takes a fly ball to turn into a home run and Alvarez has been hitting at least 35% of his batted balls into the air over the past two seasons. This coupled with a steady 25.0%+ HR/FB percentage leads to a lot of opportunities for him to hit the ball toward the Allegheny River, just over the right field wall in PNC Park.

These numbers should hold steady, meaning that’s it’s likely he’ll have 30+ home runs with anything near a full season of at bats.

Home Runs – and having Andrew McCutchen on base in front of you! – can lead to great RBI numbers. He spent most of his time hitting 6th, but he spent a fair number of at bats hitting 5th as well. These factors added up to 100 RBI in 2013 and it’s a reasonable proposition to expect this could be matched in 2014, given that little will change in the Pittsburg lineup.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE

Pedro Alvarez, despite his power, can not be described as a good hitter. He isn’t skilled at putting the bat on the ball and he has a hole in his swing to the tune of not being able to hit a change up (.196 AVG against that pitch). Simply put, he has a heck of a lot of swing and miss in his game (to the tune of a 30%+ strikeout rate).

But he is patient at the plate, looking for his pitch to hit. This will put him deep into counts, but it also leads to many of those strikeouts. This will lead to a batting average that will be a drain on your fantasy team. He’s also kryptonite toward leagues that count OBP.

He’s a strong pull hitter so teams will commonly employ the shift against him. But a bright spot is that he will change his approach with 2 strikes and try to hit to all fields.

But any talk about his hitting comes back to his power. It’s the reason he is an everyday player, despite these weaknesses in his swing. Although the swing and miss doesn’t allow his power to play up even further, he’s still mighty strong.

At 240 pounds, Alvarez is not a tiny man, but he’s not a base clogger either. He’s like a locomotive when he runs. It takes him a while to get moving, but once he gets there he can motor down the tracks. That said, it’s unlikely he pitches in more than 1 stolen base a season.

The Early Verdict for 2014

It’s likely he’ll again lead the National League in strikeouts, but it’s equally likely he’ll lead the league in home runs as well. I humbly suggest the following line as a reasonable expectation for 2014:

I’m just spitballing there as I haven’t run any numbers in my spreadsheet yet, but that should get us in the ballpark. As long as you are willing to take the hit on batting average, that’s a ton of power Alvarez gives you from the hot corner.