Fantasy Baseball Third Baseman Player Profiles: Pablo Sandoval

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Just how in the world do you explain Pablo Sandoval? I’ve asked myself that question more than once and am sure I’ll ask it again over the next few years. The guy just seems to be a walking contradiction.

• He seems to swing at just about everything, yet doesn’t strike out anywhere near as much as you’d expect, especially in this era where strikeouts are becoming less and less stigmatized.
• Again, he swings at everything, but has only failed to produce an OBP of .340 or better once in his career, in 2010.
• Sandoval is a big, powerful dude. The signature moment of his career was hitting three homers in a World Series game. The only players to have done that are Babe Ruth (twice), Reggie Jackson, and Albert Pujols. Pretty powerful hitters. Despite that, Sandoval has only topped 20 homers twice in his career and has never had more than 25.

Nothing quite adds up with Sandoval. If you’re a fan of advanced stats, he drives you nuts because he consistently defies them. If you’re more traditional and rely on the eye test, he’s even more frustrating.

Still, if you’re looking at the Kung Fu Panda for 2014, let’s see what you can expect.

Positives you’re likely to get

Chances are pretty good that you’ll at least get a good average out of Sandoval. His .278 mark in 2013 was his worst since a dismal 2010 campaign. In 2013, he dealt with weight and injury issues, not exactly uncommon problems for the Panda, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

The point is that towards the end of the season, he was healthy and slimmed down. Once he finally got used to the slighter frame, Pablo had strong production, with the following numbers in the season’s final month.

If you extrapolate that out over a full six-month season, you get this:

That’s actually pretty similar to his 2009 season. I’m not saying that you can expect that, but seeing him perform that way when slimmed down and healthy gives me reason to be encouraged as a potential fantasy owner.

Yes, he’s had issues in his career that have kept him from playing at 100 percent, but we’re talking about a .298 career hitter. It’s true you could point out that he’s a .284 career hitter since hitting .330 in 2009 and .245 in parts of 2008. That’s a drawback, but he’s a .291 hitter over the last three years, eliminating a rather ugly 2010 season.

Something else I like about Sandoval: His age. Panda turned 27 in August, and the late-20’s tend to be the best power seasons for hitters. So, although he’s hit only 26 home runs over the last two seasons, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him challenge that total in 2014 alone. Don’t get me wrong, we’re not talking about Miguel Cabrera here. Still, somewhere around 25 homers doesn’t seem that outlandish.

One more thing I like about Sandoval. Two words, Contract Year. Sandoval is sort of entrenched in San Francisco, as he’s one of the most popular players on the team. Outside of San Francisco? He doesn’t have any goodwill built up. He needs to be consistent and strong this year because if he fouls up, he’s not looking at a big contract. For a guy who’s sometimes seemed to lack focus and motivation, especially with his weight, a little incentive is a very good thing.

Need more incentive? Even his own team has talked about replacing Sandoval at third base, with Buster Posey no less. The responsibility will be Panda’s to make one of baseball’s 30 teams give him a nice contract next season. To do that, he has to be in shape. To do that, he has to be focused. If there’s ever a year where that will happen, it’s 2014.

Negatives you’re likely to get

There are a few things we can get to, here. But we’ll start with the one that isn’t really Sandoval’s fault. For the sake of argument, let’s say that Sandoval has the final month of his 2013 in all six months of the 2014 season. Look at those numbers again.

54 runs? 54 runs, even if he gets on base at a better than .400 clip? Yup.

How good the Giants will be in 2014 is a matter of some debate. Their 2013 season was dismal, but a similar team won the World Series in 2012. Here’s what’s not up for debate. The Giants do not have a great lineup, especially 1-8. The top of the order doesn’t look that terrible, with Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, and even an improving Brandon Belt. Not a murder’s row, but not bad. So, if you have Sandoval batting fifth or sixth and hitting well all year, you can get around 90 RBI.

But after that, you’re looking at Brandon Crawford, Gregor Blanco, and a pitcher. To make matters worse, AT&T Park is a pitcher’s paradise, especially when facing a left-handed hitter (as both Crawford and Blanco are) so those guys will get nothing cheap. They also don’t strike fear into the hearts of the pitchers, so even an aggressive hitter like Sandoval will be forced to toss his bat down and trot to first base at a semi-regular clip. Bottom line, if the Giants do well in 2014, it will be because of pitching, which doesn’t speak well to the value of their hitters, especially the ones batting 5-8.

As for the stuff in Panda’s control, the one that most people are probably most familiar with is his weight. Sandoval will always be a big guy, but he’s ballooned too often in his career. That leads to slow running, limited mobility at third base (which causes the Giants to pull him in late innings, possibly leading to fewer at-bats), and injuries. As we went over above, there’s potential that he’ll find a way to overcome that, but this has been a consistent issue. So, I wouldn’t blame anyone for being skeptical that he can keep it going all year.

The other problem is the injuries. Sandoval has hit the DL in each of the last three seasons. In 2013, he played 141 games, which was by far the most he’d played since 152 games in 2010. Some of the injuries have been weight related, others haven’t. He just seems to be a player who will likely miss some time throughout every season.

What do I think about Sandoval in 2014?

He’s worth a gamble, just don’t reach for him. I have a sneaking suspicion that Sandoval will outperform his draft placement this year. Let me explain.

What was the last memory people had of Sandoval in 2012? He won the World Series MVP, just like fellow third baseman David Freese did in 2011. So, like Freese, people had high expectations for him coming off of that. Even the biggest baseball fans in the world watch their favorite teams more than any others during the regular season. So, if you’re not a Giants fan, even if you knew about Sandoval’s problems — which are not new — you might have watched the World Series in 2012 and thought, this guy’s got it figured out. It’s what I did with Freese in 2011, it’s natural, it happens.

What happened in 2013? A fairly lackluster season is what happened. Now, instead of a World Series MVP, that is your memory of Sandoval heading into 2014. What’s going to happen? You’re probably looking elsewhere at third base.

So, just like people overreacted to his strong play in October of 2012, I’m expecting people to overreact to his poor play in 2013.

Sandoval is a good guy to gamble on later in the draft. He can be one of the game’s best hitters when he’s on. If he struggles, gains more weight, or gets hurt again, you simply replace him. It doesn’t hurt that much to have to move on from a mid-late round draft pick. If you see Pablo Sandoval in those rounds, grab him. If you get the impression that he’ll go earlier than that, let someone else take that risk.