Fantasy Baseball Second Base Profiles: Chase Utley
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
While relying on a soon-to-be 35-year-old middle infielder on a losing National League team is never an ideal option, Chase Utley gave us plenty of reason to be enthused in 2013. While he didn’t have the numbers that we saw in 2005-2009, when he was one the best fantasy players around, Utley did have his best overall season since 2009.
Let’s have a look at the numbers:
GP | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG/OBP/SLG | |
2010-2012 Best | 115 | 75 | 16 | 65 | 14 | .275/.387/.445 |
2010-2012 Average | 100 | 59 | 13 | 51 | 13 | .264/.367/.433 |
2013 | 131 | 73 | 18 | 69 | 8 | .284/.348/.475 |
*The “Best” Seasons all came in 2010, with the exception of SB, which was 2011.*
Now, what do those numbers mean?
What I like:
It’s always a good sign when someone produces his best season in a few years. Utley has always played like a wily veteran and he always seems to find a way to be productive when he’s on the field. The problem over the last few years is that he just hasn’t been on the field a lot, which seems to be a common problem for the boys from Philly, but more on that a little later.
Specifically, I like the hitting from the second base position. Of all second base eligible players, only Robinson Cano (27), Jedd Gyorko (23), and Dan Uggla (22), had more home runs than Uggla, while Brian Dozier and Brandon Phillips each hit 18 of their own. With the exception of Cano, who hit .314. none of those other players were within 20 points of Utley’s batting average. Actually, other than Phillips (.261), none of those other guys hit .240.
So, if you’re looking for power hitting second basemen, Utley is about as good a bet as you can find. If you want to try to figure out a way to absorb a sub-.200 batting average from Uggla for the extra four homers, please do and give me your email immediately so I can invite you into all of my leagues.
Playing in Philadelphia, that’s not likely to change that much. While the Phillies don’t resemble the squad that dominated National League pitching from 2008-2011, Citizen’s Bank Park is still a launching pad, especially for left-handed hitters.
Utley in particular has had tremendous success in Philly. His career batting average at Citizen’s Bank park is 12 points higher than his career average (.299 to .287), which is significant, as .287 isn’t exactly a bad career mark. He’s also hit 120 of his 217 career homers in Philadelphia. It’s nice to have that knowledge, but also nice to know that in 2013, he actually hit better away from home, both in terms of power and average.
Translation: Chase Utley is a good hitter. He plays half of his games in a park made for his swing, but can take his game on the road.
Lastly, this is second base week so you might hear this a few times, but second base is not exactly a position of great depth.
GP | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
Mystery Man 1 | 151/545 | 85 | 13 | 72 | 15 | .277 |
Mystery Man 2 | 193/641 | 91 | 9 | 84 | 17 | .301 |
Utley | 135/476 | 73 | 18 | 69 | 8 | .284 |
Any guesses on the mystery men? They’re both fairly highly thought of second basemen.
- Mystery Man 1: Ian Kinsler
- Mystery Man 2: Dustin Pedroia
They both play on better teams and are younger and more durable. I’m certainly not saying I’d take Utley over either of them, but I might take someone at another position over them knowing that Utley will be available in later rounds, or for much cheaper.
What I don’t like:
From a fantasy perspective, there are a few things here.
- It’s always risky to put too much stock in a 35-year-old, especially one with an injury history. On that note…
- I don’t like that I’m fairly upbeat about a guy who played 131 games in a season. If you break that down, that still leaves time for two separate DL stints, plus one game.
- These aren’t the juggernaut Phillies that won the NL East every year from 2007 to 2011 with a lethal offense. No, the 2013 Phillies finished 23 games behind the Braves in the National League East and were closer to the last-place Marlins (11 games better) than the second place Nationals (13 games worse). When dealing with an older player with injuries, bad teams are far more likely to be conservative with recovery time, wanting to see what their young guys have. While there are always surprises, the 2014 Phillies look like they’ll be a bad team, barring a big splash in free agency (not impossible).
- Following that track, the Phillies were 26th in runs scored. If you’re wondering why Utley had more homers than either Pedroia or Kinsler yet drove in fewer runs, look to the missed games he had, but also the lack of talent around him. In 2013, the Red Sox were first in runs scored, while the Rangers were eighth. Again, you never know what a big market team will do in free agency, but it’s not looking great if they don’t make some big moves, even if Dominic Brown comes back healthy and hits like he was before going on the shelf.
- Lastly, something he can control. I don’t like that his 2013 batting average is 20 points than his 2010-2012 average, but his OBP is nearly 20 points lower. Standard leagues don’t count OBP, but if you’re going to score a lot of runs and steal bases, you need to be on base more, it’s just that simple. Your natural skills are likely to diminish as you get older (it’s happened to every human I’ve ever known), but older players tend to make up for that by being more selective. Utley hasn’t done that as much recently, and as a perspective fantasy owner of his, that worries me.
The (Early) Final Verdict for 2014:
(Major plug alert) When we do our team previews in the first few weeks of the year and the Draft Kit after that, we’ll have a better sense of what the Phillies did or didn’t do in the Hot Stove season, so I’m not going to give a full on projection here, as it would almost certainly change several times over the next few months.
But, I would like to go back to the numbers we showed earlier, specifically his 2010-2012 averages against his 2013 numbers.
GP | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | |
2010-2012 Best | 100 | 59 | 13 | 51 | 13 | .264 |
2010-2012 Average | 131 | 73 | 18 | 69 | 8 | .284 |
Split the difference | 116 | 66 | 16 | 60 | 11 | .274 |
Notice how I rounded up whenever the differential was an odd number. Let nobody ever accuse me of being negative. Well, until now.
If I had to guess, I’d say that we won’t see a season from Utley in 2013 for the rest of his career. The one possible exception is that he gets traded to an American League team where he can DH some. But he just signed in Philadelphia through at least 2015, so I don’t see that as a distinct possibility.
Now, I split the differences in the table above because while I don’t think there’s much of a point in giving specific projections right now, those numbers look relatively reasonable for 2014, at least to me. Utley was ESPN’s ninth best fantasy second baseman in 2012, which essentially shows that he belonged as a starter in every league, as long as you had at least nine people. Here’s where it gets tricky.
I don’t see him going much better than that. To do that, he’d need to have a much better season than he did in 2013. We’ve already said, that’s not likely. Now, the difference between Utley and a lot of the second basemen around him isn’t that great. But I’ll also say that with maybe 1-3 exceptions, if any of the guys from 10-20 are better than him in 2014, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Utley is a safe pick. He’s kicking the field goal on a 4th-and-1 inside the red zone when down three points in the final minute of the game, even though you have a great offensive line and running back. Sticking to baseball, Utley is the equivalent of a strong power hitter just trying to hit the ball to the second basemen so the lead-off double standing on second base can advance to third and be scored with a sacrifice. There are better options at their best, but you can count on some success almost every time.