Surveying the Position: First Base

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

If you are playing in a league with us and you haven’t begun your fantasy baseball research for 2014, you have fallen behind. Soon fantasy baseball writers will release their ranking lists [How to Choose a Ranking List] for each position, going anywhere from 10 to 25 deep.

But before we get to rankings, we need to study the positions as a whole, looking for trends or changes, or anything else that will help us prepare for the upcoming season. So in the next few weeks we will be surveying each position, pulling back and taking a bird’s eye view of each place on the diamond. Last week, Clave took a look at the catcher position. Today, we move down the baseline and look at first base.

History of the First Base Position

When I think of the first base position, one word pops into my mind: Power. Historically, it’s a position where you’re looking for 30 or more homers, 100 RBI, and probably a .300 or better batting average. Defensively, it doesn’t require anywhere near as much range as any other position on the field, so they’ve always bulked up. You can go back to Willie McCovey. Heck, you can go back to Lou Gehrig, or even before.

The position has lot some of its power since 2000. Then, 12 first basemen hit 30 or more homers. In 2013, that number was down to six. But it’s traditionally a position where power reigns supreme, and it rarely lacks. As Mark McGwire and Jeff Bagwell were falling off, Albert Pujols and Todd Helton were ascending. When Helton faded, there was Prince Fielder, and later Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, and Miguel Cabrera.

Now that Pujols is fading and Cabrera is no longer a first baseman,  Paul Goldschmidt and Chris Davis have become household names.

Modern Trends of the First Base Position

First basemen have a lot of value not only because they can beef up and become stronger hitters, but because the position isn’t as strenuous, it doesn’t require great amounts of time off. So, when you add that up with the fact that the hitters are better, you get guys who play pretty much every day who also hit in one of the first three or four spots in the lineup.

As a result, you get Joey Votto leading all hitters in plate appearances in 2013 with 726. Prince Fielder (712) and Paul Goldschmidt (710) were over 700, while Anthony Rizzo (690), Eric Hosmer (680), Mark Trumbo (678), Chris Davis (673), and Kendrys Morales (657) all topped 650. That’s not exactly a modern trend, as it’s been going for over 100 years now. But 100 years from now, it won’t be any different, at least at the top.

The one thing I see that would hurt the depth of the position is the platoon, which we’ll get to in the next section. What I’d like to do now is take a look at some numbers. Look at the numbers of the players who were ranked 12th on the ESPN player rater at first base in 2013 (Mark Trumbo) and 2012 (Adam LaRoche). If you’re in a 12-team league, it makes sense that you’d want a Top-12 player at every position, especially first base, right? Right!

LaRoche definitely dwarfs Trumbo in the averages, but the power numbers look pretty similar. Combine the two players, and take the best stats from each in the respective categories. If you’re not getting that from your first baseman, you’re falling behind and had better have some big production from a non-power position to make up for it.

The Future of the First Base Position

There are a few things I’d like to look at here. First for some names. The 2013 player rater tells us that the position won’t be changing much in the coming years. Chris Davis will be 28 on opening day, Paul Goldschmidt just turned 26, while Freddie Freeman is only 24. Heck, Joey Votto just turned 30, while Prince Fielder won’t hit that milestone until May.

But while the names aren’t new, there are some new big fantasy contributors to look out for in 2014.  Brandon Belt and Eric Hosmer both had solid seasons in 2013, and were much better in the second half as they moved up their team’s batting orders. Both can steal bases, too. If you’re looking forward to your draft and can’t bring yourself to use an early pick or a big part of your auction budget on one of the established stars, think about them, likely at more of a bargain.

Now for an actual trend, the platoon. I don’t see it changing too much in 2014, but looking a little down the road, I can see this becoming a big part of a few positions, but first base is a big one. But before we look forward, let’s take a quick look back to the year I cited above, 2000. Specifically, let’s look at Mark Grace and J.T. Snow.

Not abysmal by any stretch of the imagination, but 30 home runs between two every day first basemen isn’t exactly what you want to see.

In 2013, the Oakland A’s really showed what you can do with a platoon. Brandon Moss played 111 games at first base this year. He slugged .522, hitting 30 home runs. Now, he did play some games at DH, in the outfield, and even at 3B, so his 30 home runs came in 145 games where he totaled 505 plate appearances.

If you get someone not as versatile (especially on an NL team without a DH), you’re going to see a more significant loss of at-bats and in turn, the counted numbers will take a hit. Now, there will always be guys like Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt, and they’ll certainly play every day. So, I don’t see the top of the position changing that much.

The depth of the position will be hurt down the road, as teams like the A’s continue to have success with a platoon. Teams are going for power at that position, even if it does come from a few different guys. If organizations don’t see an elite first baseman, but do see one guy who crushes lefties and another who crushes righties, they’ll continue to split them. If you’re thinking about dismissing it as just one team’s way of working, remember that sports are copycat. If one team has success doing something unique, most of the league will follow suit in short order.

So, the days of 12 guys at one position bashing 30 homers are likely going the way of the dinosaur. You’ll generally see a half dozen of those guys, while teams that don’t have them will get 30 homers from the position, just getting 17 from one guy and 13 from another. The trend of the position is possibly the platoon. If that does indeed catch on, the trend of the position for fantasy may be a handcuff situation.