Who’d You Rather: Eric Hosmer or Brandon Belt?

Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

In 2012 Eric Hosmer‘s career was sinking like a rock tied to another, heavier rock. I’ll share it lest we forget how brutal it was:

He slugged a mere .359? What was that? Satire? Performance art? A desperate cry for help? What it certainly wasn’t was a season worth his draft pick, nor was it a line deserving a roster spot in fantasy baseball.

But let’s not forget that Hosmer was 22 that season, so it’s understandable that he had some bumps in the road. He bounced back in 2013:

While that’s still not a traditional thumper of a first baseman, the across the board production is nice. Now let’s compare that to the 2013 from Brandon Belt:

It will make you think you are seeing double, particularly when you remember that Belt stole 12 bases in 2012, meaning in 2014 he could erase the advantage Hosmer has there. In my mind I think that Belt is 47 years old because it seems like we’ve spent the better part of two decades wondering if he’d ever get enough at bats to realize his potential, but he’s just 25 himself. Now he’s finally getting his trips to the plate.

So they put up strikingly similar lines in 2013 and are heading into 2014 on equal footing. Who’d you rather have on your fantasy team?

A Deeper Look at Brandon Belt

It has been painful to see Belt’s plate appearances rise so slowly, from 209 in 2011, to 472 in 2012, until finally reaching 571 in 2013, still 100 less than what a fantasy owner would like to see, hoping Belt could work his way into and up in the lineup.

With regular at bats in 2013 he produced an encouraging batted ball profile. Over 65% of what he hits is either a line drive or a fly ball. While the line drives are nice for the batting average, it’s the fly balls that us greedy fantasy owners covet, because they can turn into home runs.

Unfortunately, Belt managed only a 10.6% HR/FB output, but I’m here to tell you that this isn’t entirely his fault. AT&T Park is notoriously hard on lefty hitters not named Barry Bonds. Since they aren’t moving in those fences any time soon, we need to hope Belt can take advantage of his surprising .193 isolated power (ISO) on the road.

In Belt’s 209 plate appearance sample in 2011 he displayed a 15.8% HR/FB, illustrating that more power is in there. The point is that there is a lot more head room when it comes to Belt and I wouldn’t be shocked to see 24-26 homers from him in 2014.

A Deeper Look at Eric Homer

Fellow lefty Hosmer’s batted ball profile doesn’t appear vastly different than Belt’s on the surface, but if you look closely a thing or two pops out at you.

Eric Hosmer adjusts his cap. Image courtesy of Keith Allison.

Whereas barely over 1/3 of the balls Belt puts in play are hit on the ground, it’s a different story for Hosmer, who owns a 52.7% GB%. With over half the balls Hosmer hits being grounders, it’s not reasonable to expect a huge jump in home runs unless there is a change of approach at the plate.

Still, 13% of the fly balls he hit leave as homers. This is a number that could potential tick up a percent or two as he fills out. If he’d only slightly turn a few more of those ground balls into fly balls while edging up his HR/FB%, he’d crack the 20-homer plateau in 2014. You add that to the rest of his all-around play and you have yourself a fine mid-tier fantasy first baseman. Remember that Joey Votto and Freddie Freeman only had 24 and 23 home runs, respectively, yet were drafted much higher.

So what happened to Hosmer in 2012 and is it a cause for concern going forward? Hosmer’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was .255 in 2012, yet it was .314 in 2011 and bounced back to .335 in 2013. Could it be as simple as Hosmer was incredibly unlucky in 2012?

It appears so. We have a young player who slumped early due to bad luck, then placed more pressure on himself because he was slumping, which led to more slumping and missing at bats due to benching. It really could be as simple as the snake eating it’s own tail, Hosmer being caught up in a downward spiral of early career growing pains. Nothing else much about his approach changed other than his BABIP, so let’s go with Occam’s Razor and say that this simple solution is the right one.

So draft Hosmer confidently(ish) in 2014, knowing that 2013 represents a reasonable baseline expectation for him.

Who’d You Rather?

Gun to my head I’d choose Brandon Belt, although I admit I’d waffle back and forth on that decision. I think there is head room with both players, but both also come with a caveat. Hosmer obviously had the disaster of 2012, while Belt gets benched every time he goes 0-for-4.

Yet I’m hopeful that the Giants improve their offense this off-season putting more guys on base for Belt to knock in. (Good grief, it’s weird to know that at this moment in time the offense of the Kansas City Royals is better than that of the San Francisco Giants.) In my crazy imagination Belt would actually bat second, increasing his runs scored.

Regardless, I’m expecting another step forward of of Belt in 2014, and that coupled with the fact that he’ll be drafted a little later than Hosmer gives him the nod in my mind.