Chris Davis: Can He Crush Another 50 Home Runs in 2014?

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Chris Davis had an unbelievable 2103 season with 103 runs, 138 RBI, a .286 AVG, and 53 home runs! Let’s take a look at Crush, and see what would have to happen for him to achieve another 50 homer milestone in 2014.

How would the stars need to align for Crush to get another 50 home runs?

It’s both more complicated, yet simpler than you might think. Let’s look at how the stars need to line up:

STAR 1: He Suits Up

More specifically, he makes a lot of appearances at the plate (PA).  It may seem elementary, but you can’t hit a ton of homers if you don’t have a ton of opportunity. Davis stayed healthy in 2013 and rarely takes a day off. He’s completely removed from left field and playing exclusively at the less demanding first base. One star for his health in 2014.

Additionally, he hit 3rd in what is an underrated Orioles lineup, which helped him rack up the PAs. Specifically, he had 673 in 2013 – by far a career high – and will need to log close to that to repeat 50 homers in 2014.

STAR 2: He Keeps Cutting Down the Strikeouts

You didn’t hit a home run if you are walking back to the dugout after getting rung up. Davis struck out in 29.6% of his at bats in 2013, which isn’t good, but is right in line with his career numbers. In smaller sample sizes with the Rangers he was able to take that number as low as 27.8%, and he got it to as low as 21.8% in Double A.

His O-Swing% (glossary here) has improved and if his Contact% returns to even 70%, his strikeouts might tick down by a couple dozen on the season.

Still, Davis certainly isn’t among the league best at putting the bat on the ball. I think a 29.0% represents about the best out of him, but if he sticks at his 2013 rate we won’t complain. Assuming that Davis can reach the same level 2014 – striking out in just under 30% of his at bats – he’ll be another step closer to 50 more bombs. 

STAR 3: He Takes a Walk, But Not Too Many Walks

This step is brought to you by Joey Votto. In order to hit so many homers, it’s beneficial to minimize the amount of walks as well. While I love a good OBP guy, every time he’s standing on first is one less plate appearance he didn’t knock one over the fence. Davis walked in 10.7% of his plate appearances in 2013, a number that shouldn’t rise much higher.

For sake of argument, let’s use some reasonable example numbers to show how the stars are starting to line up.

"650 PA in 2014. Hypothetically, we’re projecting just below his 2013 career high of 673.30% K% meaning that 195 of the above PA end in a strikeout.10.5% BB% meaning that 68 of the above PA end up with a walk.So far all projections for 2014 are perfectly reasonable and he still has 387 plate appearances with which to hit a homer. Crush’s hypothetical 2014 is looking good so far."

STAR 4:  He Doesn’t See a Significant Change in the Way Pitchers Approach Him

Pitchers are a wily sort and Crush is hardly sneaking up on anyone these days. For Crush to again hit 50 we have to recognize that a lot is out of his control. Pitchers are going to adjust to him, trying to pound on his weaknesses. If the league gets him out of rhythm or simply refuses to give him anything at all to hit, he may not be able to approach 50 again.

I just felt like this was important to point out.

STAR 5: He Needs to Hit the Ball in The Air With a High Frequency

Line drives are great for a player’s BABIP. A grounder is nice for a speedster looking for infield hits, but a chopper in the dirt does not a home run make. Fly balls turn into home runs.

Luckily, in 2013 Davis hit 45.7% of his balls in play as fly balls. However, he also hit a lot of line drives – 21.9%, to be exact. Let’s say that Davis has his fly ball total drop to 42%, with to 3.7% difference being split between line drives and grounders. This is hardly unreasonable, especially given that  45.7% represents a career high.

We established above that he has 387 balls in play and to be safe we’re projecting that 42% of those will be fly balls. That’s around 163 fly balls that have a chance to leave the yard.

STAR 6: Make Sure Those Fly Balls Leave the Yard

In order for Crush to again hit 50 homers, he would have to hit 30.7% of those 163 fly balls out of Camden Yards. In 2013 his HR/FB was 29.6%, a career high and a number that led the Majors. It’s not unreasonable as Camden Yards is a forgiving park, but lets do our due diligence and account for some regression. Let’s drop that number down to 26.3%, which would match Pedro Alvarez, the man who was 2nd in the Major Leagues for HR/FB.

"163 fly balls x 26.3% HR/FB = 43 Home Runs in 2014"

Clearly, the stars really did align for Crush in 2013, because when we projected his 2014 with a slight, but reasonable, regression, we get 43 home runs. Hitting 50 home runs is hard.

It’s not astronomical to think that Crush will get another 50 in 2014, but you can see that if you add a fair and reasonable amount of regression he comes up just shy. But us fantasy baseball players are optimists, so let’s just say he’s got a great shot, and leave it at that.