Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of September 16
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.
Welcome to the penultimate Dixon’s Picks of the year. Things are certainly getting less predictable, as with the expanded rosters of September and teams falling out of contention, managers aren’t afraid to use the luxury of bumping starters back. I’ll certainly run these all year, but know that these projected starts are becoming less and less predictable.
Anyway, let’s take a look at my total numbers after the weeks of Randall Delgado, Martin Perez, and Ubaldo Jimenez.
Total Starts | IP | ER | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP | QS | W-L |
107 | 656.2 | 263 | 650 | 184 | 491 | 3.60 | 1.27 | 65 | 38-29 |
The weekend was actually good for all three guys, but Jimenez definitely kept the numbers afloat early in the week.
Now for this week’s guys.
- Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres — Probable Starts: Monday at Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Both of these starts look a little hairy, but that doesn’t stop me from liking Andrew Cashner this week.
I’ve said this before about the Pirates, but they’re not a scary offensive team. Don’t mistake that for me saying they’re a fluke, or a team that can’t win in the playoffs — I don’t believe either of those things. But you look at that lineup and while they have some dangerous bats and a clear star in Andrew McCutchen, they don’t come off as a lineup that can’t be handled. So, while the team record is phenomenal, their offensive stats are fairly ordinary.
Cashner also has good recent performance against the Pirates (albeit in a losing effort) to draw from:
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | L | 1.29 | 1.00 |
The Dodgers do pose an interesting test. Still, remember a few things.
1 – You can’t deny a little luck, but Cashner’s done pretty well against the Dodgers in 2013:
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
19.2 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 0-0 | 1.83 | 1.373 |
That WHIP looks ugly, but even that’s a little skewed by a 10-hit, three-walk performance. Without that, you’re looking at WHIP at 1.10, which looks a little more normal with a 1.83 ERA.
2 – Cashner has been a nightmare for opposing hitters at home this year
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
71.1 | 17 | 59 | 13 | 45 | 5-3 | 2.14 | 1.01 |
You just can’t ignore those splits. He actually strikes hitters out at a better rate on the road, but K’s aren’t essential at Petco Park. Cashner knows that, and pitches to contact.
3 – That may not be the same Dodgers lineup we’re used to seeing
There’s almost no way that the Dodgers won’t have clinched the NL West by this weekend. We already know that Matt Kemp is out, but Andre Ethier and Hanley Ramirez each suffered injuries last week. Yasiel Puig plays very aggressive, so it makes sense that Don Mattingly may want to rest him in some meaningless games.
At this point of the year, you have to look a little between the lines with these matchups. Yes, the Pirates and Dodgers are going to the playoffs, but things still line up pretty well for Andrew Cashner.
Cashner’s Projections for the Week
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
13 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 1-0 | 3.46 | 1.15 |
- Yusmeiro Petit, San Francisco Giants — Probable Starts: Tuesday at New York Mets, Sunday at New York Yankees
If you’re going to go with guys on teams like the Giants, you have to find guys with something to play for. Yusmeiro Petit has a lot to play for this year, and I like this week for him.
The Mets aren’t a very good offensively to begin with, Citi Field is a great pitcher’s park, and David Wright is probably going to remain inactive (at least for this game). There aren’t many teams that are better to stream against than the Mets.
The Yankees have actually impressed me (I’m sure they’re blown away) by how long they’ve stayed in the race. Joe Girardi has done a fantastic job mixing and matching guys while dealing with injuries, looming suspensions, and in some cases general ineffectiveness. Still, they don’t scare me offensively.
Look at Petit’s numbers this year:
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
32 | 9 | 26 | 6 | 37 | 3-0 | 2.53 | 1.00 |
Those 32 innings came against the Reds, then the Diamondbacks (twice) and Rockies (also twice). It’s certainly not bad opponents and not even AT&T Park aided, as Chase Field and Coors Field are about as tough on pitchers as it gets. The guy knows how to miss bats, which generally translates from pitcher’s parks to hitter’s parks.
I don’t know if Petit is really going to be a good pitcher moving forward or if he’s just a journeyman on a magical run. But while he’s on the magical run, bring him to your team, especially in a tw0-start week with favorable matchups.
Petit’s Projections for the Week
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
14 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 2-0 | 2.57 | 0.93 |
- Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Chicago Cubs, Sunday vs. St. Louis Cardinals
I know what you’re thinking, did he fire six shots, or only five….sorry. I got a little sidetracked there.
In all seriousness, is it really a good idea to advise anyone to stream a pitcher against the Cardinals? The Dodgers are one thing, as they are a little beaten up and unless something catastrophic happens, they’ll have everything clinched by the time they meet up with Cashner. But the Cardinals are a potent offensive team AND playing for the division. How can I tell someone to add Marco Estrada in a two-start week, when one of the two starts is against the Cardinals?
Actually, there are few reasons.
1 – Estrada’s last six starts:
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
37.2 | 10 | 34 | 7 | 35 | 2-0 | 2.39 | 1.09 |
2 – Two of those starts were against the Cardinals, and Estrada did okay for himself:
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
12.2 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0-0 | 3.55 | 1.11 |
3 – You can be patient
This one is important. For those of you in the head-to-head playoffs right now, remember that Estrada not only has his more risky start on Sunday, but it’s Sunday night. You will literally have every every one of your week’s pitching stats in front of you knowing what you need to do to win, and what you can/can’t risk.
Now, I don’t mean to be dismissive of the Cubs. But statistically, they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league.
You have to ride the hot hand with a pitcher going as strong as Estrada is. When he stays healthy, the guy can flat out go on the mound and is someone you want to use whenever you need a boost, if not even more often than that.
Estrada’s Projections for the Week
IP | ER | H | BB | K | W-L | ERA | WHIP |
14 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 1-0 | 3.21 | 1.07 |