Blind Comparisons: First Half Stats

Jonah Hill will tell you, it’s all about the numbers.

Photo courtesy of Josh Jensen.

In fantasy baseball, the numbers are the only thing that matters. Your team doesn’t have pregame speeches from Hunter Pence and chemistry means absolutely nothing. The numbers are all that matters. It’s really that simple.

To be successful in fantasy baseball, you have to find a way to put your biases behind you. What’s happened in the past doesn’t matter. What was projected doesn’t matter. All that matters is what will happen now.

• Note 1: Ownership rate numbers are according to ESPN.
• Note 2: All stats are up to date through the All-Star Break.

Let’s get it started.

1. Catcher

Player A

Player B

The numbers line up pretty similarly here. Actually, Player B has been slightly better overall. So, why the 30 percent ownership hap in Player A’s favor? Well, let’s reveal the players.

These players are at opposite ends of their careers. Player A is more than 13 years younger than Player B. Player B is also coming off of a season that was a career year by great lengths. Nobody seemed to think that he would come anywhere near those numbers again, especially at his advanced age. While he’s nowhere near his 2012 pace, he’s on par with the Young Buck that is Player A.

There’s an extreme example to use here and I’m gonna go ahead and do it.

Let’s say that Tiger Woods and I are going to play two rounds of golf. In Round 1, he shoots a 64 and I shoot a 78. Now, let’s say that you’re betting on Round 2’s winner, and the odds are even and it’s a straight bet with no strokes. For the fun of it, maybe you even know that Tiger will fail to repeat his 64, while I’ll even be better than my 78. Are you going to bet on me? I wouldn’t.

The tendency in fantasy baseball is to always look young, and I get that to an extent. But in a win-now situation, don’t discount the old guy.

• Player A: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
• Player B: A.J. Pierzynski, Texas Rangers

2. Third Base

Player A

Player B

First off, I can see the difference in OBP. So, if you’re in a league that counts walks or OBP, Player B is the much better option. Although, while it is much better than .257, a .330 OBP isn’t exactly sparkling. If you’re not in that kind of league, the walks aren’t exactly leading to many runs, are they? And in case you want to talk about teammates, both players play on last place teams, with Player B actually playing on the one with the slightly better offense.

So, why the gap? Well, like with the catchers, Player B is the bigger, more established name. But unlike the catchers, the more established name has a higher ownership.

In this case, Player B is younger than A.J. Pierzynski, but it also coming off of a career year, by far. But unlike the first comparison, fantasy owners seem to be hanging on and hoping that he’ll return to 2012 form. It’s just not happening so far.

Honestly, you can do a lot better than either of these two at third base. But if you find yourself looking for a third baseman, Player A is no worse than Player B in a standard league.

• Player A: Matt Dominguez, Houston Astros
• Player B: Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

For more on Dominguez, check out the piece that Will Meadows ran on him last month.

3. Starting Pitcher

Player A 

Player B

We’ll start here. With the 3B example, you could say that I was trying to draw your attention to the similarities between Matt Dominguez and Chase Headley to say something like, “Hey, Headley’s numbers are right on par with an inconsequential fantasy player. Maybe it’s time to look in another direction.” This one is different. Here, I’m more saying something like this. “Player A has numbers that are comparable with one of the game’s best pitchers and a former Cy Young Award winner. Think about bringing him on board until he tails off in a big way.”

The reason Player B is owned across the board is simple. He’s just one of the game’s best starting pitchers. There’s no real need to analyze that any deeper.

As for why Player A is owned in nearly 80 percent of leagues? I have a few theories.

One, he plays on a team that overachieved last year. Most people seemed to feel that not only would the team level off in 2013, but that their players would too. That hasn’t really happened.

Another reason is Player A’s lack of experience at the big league level. While his 2012 numbers were actually very good (better in some ways than they are now), he’s about at the same inning total now than he had in his 2012 season. So, expecting some collapse is natural.

But those numbers are really good. While a 6.77 K/9 rate isn’t great, it’s not a bad ratio. Heck, the star that is Player B is at a 7.2 K/9 rate.

Like I said earlier, when a player is having a great season, DO NOT automatically assume that he’ll level off. He might, but that will come in time and when it happens, let him go. But until then, you’re really shortchanging yourself by leaving a guy like that on your Waiver Wire just assuming that he’ll come down to earth. If he doesn’t, you’re missing some great production.

• Player A: Miguel Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles
  
• Player B: Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers