Ask Nash: Is Panda worth Gambling on?


Nash,

The dialogue hypothetical offer…”Domonic Brown/Mark Melancon/Josh Donaldson for Pablo Sandoval/Brandon Moss/Joaquin Benoit”.

It essentially boils down to Brown/Donaldson for Panda with him throwing in ancillary parts to make it an even bodies trade.Not entirely sure what to make of this as Panda is a health risk, Moss is essentially a WW fodder, and Benoit isn’t guaranteed the closer role in Detroit.

Thanks

Slim

Slim,

I disagree with you that the trade boils down to Panda for Brown and Donaldson. Brandon Moss, although a waiver wire pick up, is a decent outfielder/first baseman. I do agree that you just never quite know if you are getting a healthy Panda in the regular season. Now, Mark Melancon and Joaquin Benoit probably don’t factor in much here. So, we need to assess if Panda is a good enough upgrade at 3B to let go of a solid Donaldson AND Domonic Brown while still getting a decent Moss in return.

The real simple, and correct, answer is no. An emphatic NO!

Granted, Pablo Sandoval can catch fire and put up so legit star numbers rest of way.  Also he will most likely end up batting .300, or close to it, and that means he will have a good batting average in front of him. Also, Donaldson is not likely to hit .300 on the season. In fact, he should take a pretty bad dip at some point here real soon as he only hit at a .241 clip last season.  Even with all the batting average bonus going to Panda without a doubt, the power output should be close for the rest of the season between the two.

So even though Panda would be an upgrade to Josh Donaldson in some regards here, you have to weigh it against the addition of Domonic Brown to the deal. When you are only getting Brandon Moss in return, then you are really losing too much on the OF swap with how much you’d be gaining at the 3B swap. Moss is most likely on pace for AVG, and his power numbers will stay consistent. I also think that D. Brown is the real deal, as this has been a couple seasons coming now.

When making a trade midseason, you need to weigh, what you are giving to what you are getting. So, let’s take a look at some numbers.

Player

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

Brown

286

40

20

54

8

.276

Donaldson

292

41

12

51

2

.308

Panda

237

26

8

37

6

.283

Moss

230

37

14

40

2

.239

You also need to think of what they’ll do for the rest of the year. If you assume they all keep pace the rest of this season, then you assume that they essentially double. Again this is not likely because you just never know what will happen, and assuming they double their at bats means they will double their production accordingly would mean that no first place team would ever lose a Roto league ever. It is never an exact science to predict rest of season production.

If we look at pretty much any site’s preseason projections for Domonic Brown, we’ll see that he has basically hit his end of year numbers already. I would expect he cools a bit, but I would still guess he will be the best player in the group for rest of season.

Player

AB

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

Brown

300

41

19

51

6

Stays

Donaldson

301

40

12

52

2

Drops

Panda

265

31

11

45

1

Rises

Moss

233

38

12

41

1

Stays

These my estimations of what you should expect rest of season for these players. Hard to say exactly on AVG, but I hope this gives you an idea of how to view the trade in regards to your team’s future success.

Tags: Dominic Brown Josh Donaldson Pablo Sandoval