Sleepers Who Have Been Slept on: Toronto Blue Jays

Photo courtesy of daniel.richardson0685

Welcome back to “Sleepers Who Have Been Slept On.” Today we are going to focus on an overlooked left-hander who has become the ace of a dismal Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff.

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio in a winter blockbuster deal with Miami. The road to the American League East title was supposed to go through Toronto. Currently, the Blue Jays are sitting in last place as the red hot Boston Red Sox continue to increase their lead.

The biggest problem with Toronto has been their abysmal pitching staff. The Blue Jays arms sport a 4.52 team ERA. That number puts them behind only the Astros and Angels as the third worst pitching staff in the American League.

Going into the season J.A. Happ was vying for the fifth spot in the rotation. Through the first month of the season he is the team’s best starting pitcher and the only bright spot in the Jays $41 million starting rotation.

Going into this week J.A. Happ is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA. Those numbers don’t look that good until you compare them with his teammates abysmal numbers. The rest of the Blue Jays starting pitchers have a combined record of 3-8 with an ERA over 5.

The biggest reason for Happ’s resurgence is that his walk rate is a very respectable 3.54 with a BABIP average of .259.

Issuing walks has been his Achilles heel throughout his career. Each time his walk rate has drifted above 4.00 he has had very average to below average results. In his rookie season of 2009, Haap allowed 3.04 BB/9 and went 12-4 with an ERA of 2.93. He hasn’t seen anything near that level of success since then.

Things seem to have turned around for him in the early going of this season. He is relying on his fastball more than any other time in his career, which sets up his change up that he is throwing at a higher percentage than in the past. His LD% and HR/FB% are the lowest he has ever posted.

Keep in mind he pitches his home games in the spacious Rogers Centre. The one big concern with him is when he pitches away from Toronto. He is allowing a career high fly ball percentage of 53.7% in the early going. If that number stays anywhere close to that level he will give up homeruns at an increased rate in less pitcher friendly ballparks on the road.

It remains to be seen, but if he can limit his walks enough to return to the pitcher we saw in 2009.

You can get in on the ground floor with J.A. Happ right now or you can wait to see if he can maintain this current trend. His peripherals point towards sustainable numbers. As the summer humidity takes hold he may begin to give up a few homers that will hurt his performance.

One way or another you will be able to get him right now at a cheap price regardless of what his future returns may bring to your team.