Sleepers who Have Been Slept on: Chicago Cubs
By Will Meadows
Photo courtesy of kimtetsu.
Welcome to the second installment of “Sleepers Who Have Been Slept On.” The Chicago Cubs will be improved but they will struggle at times as they continue to rebuild. Today, we will focus on a pitcher that gets no respect and a recent Japanese import who has assumed the closer role in Chicago this week.
Edwin Jackson – SP
Jackson has been in the league for so long that a lot of people think he’s would be in his mid thirties by now. While he made his debut in 2003, he was only 19 then and won’t be 30 until September and well within his prime Some of you will say “he never had a prime” but unfortunately (or fortunately), you’d be wrong.
In the early going of this season he is throwing his slider 37% of the time. That is an increase of 9% over last season but similar to his 2011 numbers. By throwing his slider more he will increase his line drive percentage as he did during the 2011 season.
Increasing his LD% will increase his BABIP, which means opportunities for hitters to get on base. If his BABIP increases from last season you will want to see his strand rate stay above 70% and ideally closer to 75% for Edwin Jackson to see an increase in wins over the ten wins he amassed last season with the Nationals.
He will throw 200 innings for the Cubs this season with an ERA under 4.00 and possibly close to his current 3.60 that he has posted this season. A K/9 rate around 8 will also be sustainable on the north side of Chicago. It is hard to pinpoint how many wins a pitcher will receive because of numerous factors outside of their control (run support, bullpen). But the Cubs offense will be improved, so you can expect a win total around 12.
Edwin Jackson should improve his numbers across the board this season. He is a very serviceable pitcher for your team’s No. 5 spot. He will be a cheap player to get in a trade. In most trades you will be able to grab him for your team as an afterthought along with a bigger name that you are targeting.
Kyuji Fujikawa – P
Carlos Marmol has officially lost his closer position with the Cubs. Maybe it had something to do with 330 walks in 516 innings as closer.
If you are very lucky Kyuji Fujikawa is still available in your league. The rookie from Japan will have immediate impact as a closer for your team. His fastball tops out at 93 mph to go along with a splitter that he will throw 32% of the time to keep hitters off balance. He was a closer in Japan, so he will have no problem transitioning into the role in Chicago.
The Cubs aren’t very good but they will keep games close and whoever is their closer of the moment will have many save opportunities. Grab him if you can.
Previous Installments