The Numbers You Need to Win Your League

Alex Rios gives balanced roto production. Photo by Keith Allison.

The first thing you do when preparing for your fantasy baseball draft is to find your baseline numbers. Seriously it’s the first thing you need to do. I’ve written about it before, but it bears repeating: you must determine a baseline goal before you draft. These are the stat totals you need to win your fantasy baseball league. Knowing these allow you to draft a balanced team that gives you a shot to finish in the money. After that, it’s all in season management my friends.

I’ve gone back and forth in my decision to even share these numbers, because the only truly accurate numbers are those that you calculate yourself based upon the actual settings of your own league. Disclaimer aside, I decided that we’ll get in the ballpark for the fantasy baseball drafter on the go, and after using these set numbers once you may begin to understand their significance and calculate your own next season. Disclaimer disclaimed, here are the parameters:

1. These are based upon 5 years of back data in my own leagues and standardized for a 12-team league. (10 team leagues are too small. Here’s how to understand Player Pool Penetration.)
2. These are based upon 5 outfielders and one Utility player, splitting the difference between lean leagues playing just 10 positions and those with CI and MI slots. If your league rosters run larger or smaller then add an average player. It won’t be exact, but you’ll be surprised at how close it comes in each category.
3. Average is 6.5 points in a 12 team league. Remember, last place gets 1 point, not zero.

So here’s what it takes to win a 12 team 5×5 roto fantasy baseball league:

Several takeaways from the above table:

1. Team average and player average for batting average, ERA and WHIP are identical because a player needs to average the average to get that number. Obvious, I know, but worth pointing out. 
2. Some categories like home runs and saves can tend to be more competitive and the 1st – 3rd teams can cluster near the top. Notice trends like this in your own leagues.
3. To get 6.5 roto points your team needs 870 runs with each player chipping in 71 on average. To win that category and get the full 12 roto points you need 1040 runs. Hopefully that explains the table.
4. You aren’t going to find 10 exact “average” players. You’ll draft some guys for high home run totals, some for high steal totals, and yes, some for their balance. While the player average give you a picture of what your target average players will be for those point totals, the figures you need to focus on are the team totals.

Set your draft targets for at least 3rd place. Again, you should really do this for your own league settings (Here’s a How To), but if you’re looking for the easy road, here’s some solid draft targets, noticing that I eeked most numbers up a titch to provide a cushion:

Alright, now go dominate your draft!