Fantasy Baseball 2013 Player Profiles: Dexter Fowler

Photo courtesy of E.A. Sanabria.

I’ve said this before, but the Colorado Rockies have potential to be at least an interesting fantasy baseball team, at least with the bats. In Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and to a lesser extent Michael Cuddyer, you have some reliable stalwarts, though all three bring durability question marks. You also have some potentially nice young guns in Wilin Rosario and Josh Rutledge.

Then you have Dexter Fowler. He’s no longer a young gun and isn’t quite a fantasy stud. Still, he’ll bring plenty of fantasy value to fantasy leagues everywhere. Let’s take a closer look.

Cons

When you look at Fowler’s stats, you can’t help but think that they should be a little better, at least in a few areas. Some of that comes from durability, as Fowler has never played more than 143 games in a single season. Still, take a look at his season averages since becoming a full time player in 2009.

Even if he played an extra 20 games per year, how much better would those numbers really get?

The number that really concerns me is the stolen base total. That average is really skewed by 27 steals in 2009. In the subsequent three seasons, he’s stolen 13, 12, and 12. The .273 batting average isn’t spectacular by any means, but his OBP over the last four seasons has been a rock solid .366. He’s also averaged 12 triples a season in that time, never going below 10. So, you know that the speed is there. Why can’t this guy be at the 27 from 2009 (if not higher) every year? At the very least, why can’t he be around 15?

If the argument is that he’s focusing more on power, realize that that only goes so far. Yes, Fowler doubled his career best in home runs in 2012, but he only hit 13. He did become a better overall hitter in 2012, hitting .300 when his previous career high was .266. Still, you can’t help but see his numbers year in and year out and think that something might be missing. That is ultimately the biggest problem with Fowler. The talent is immense, but the numbers could be a lot better.

Pros

Look at Fowler’s 2012 numbers.

Sure, you wish he could be better in an area or two, but there’s not a real weak category that stands out. Entering his Age 27 season, there’s good reason to think that that will continue, at least through 2013.

The Rockies don’t have a particularly bright outlook in 2013, but that’s because of the pitchers. They have plenty of offensive talent on this team. If Fowler played 130 or so games, and Cargo+Tulo+Cuddyer player 130-140 each, Fowler is a real threat to score 90 or more runs.

Remember, he gets to play half of his games at Coors Field, where offense tends to be inflated well beyond any other park.

Fowler has always drawn a lot of walks and puts himself in scoring position an awful lot with doubles and triples. His batting average spiked by 34 points in 2012, which tells me that he’s becoming a better overall hitter. I don’t know that I see him getting much better than .300 in the coming years, but I can see the home run total getting closer to 20 at Coors Field without any problems.

There’s always something to be said about a guy who’s decent in every single category. He’s not going to be the league leader anywhere, but you won’t have to overcome his weakness in a single category. He won’t be the best player in a winning team, but he could easily be an integral part of a fantasy champ.

Overall Outlook

Take a look at our Draft Kit Projections for Fowler.

We didn’t argue over Fowler a lot, so those aren’t far from what I personally think he’ll do.

I will say that I think he’ll go over 15 homers in 2013, but 76 RBI from the lead off spot is really high, especially in the National League. That’s where MLB Depth Charts has him batting and where he should hit in the Colorado order. The runs, steals, and average look really good to me. Personally, I am saying 16 homers and 65 or so RBI.

Fowler’s a nice player because the physical potential is obvious to anyone who’s ever seen him play. Entering his Age 27 season, there’s potential that he can be an absolute steal but his skill sets show that he’s not likely to be a fantasy bust. I completely agree with our overall 102 ranking in the Draft Kit. This time next year, I think he’s got a good chance of being much higher and not much of a chance of being lower. Draft him to be a neither good or bad at anything guy, but don’t be surprised if his overall value ends up being far better.