Fantasy Baseball 2013: Arizona D’Backs Hitting-Pitching Projections

Look for more improvement from Goldschmidt in 2013.

Photo Courtesy of Flickr user Mudflap DC.

Arizona Diamondbacks — Predicted Finish: Third Place, NL West

Whether you’re evaluating a team’s real baseball value, or the individual fantasy value of a player, there’s always some lingering question mark. Sure, I can feel pretty confident in saying that the 2013 World Series won’t be between the Cubs and Astros, but if it’s actually possible, it can happen. Now that the Astros are in the AL, it can happen. I can only say pretty confidentially that it won’t.

But while the trade of Justin Upton and Chris Johnson will probably make it hard for Arizona to beat the Giants or Dodgers, let alone both, this is still a team with an awful lot of talent. From a fantasy perspective, there’s still a lot of potential with this squad, but you have to be willing to gamble. To best illustrate this, take a look at thee last two seasons of their number one pitcher, Ian Kennedy.

Over the last two years, his combined ERA is 3.43. Yet he’s done that without having an ERA between 3.00 and 3.99 either season. To paraphrase Billy Joel, this team goes to extremes.

But let’s corral all of those extremes and see what we can expect from the Diamondbacks, and their players in 2013.

Diamondbacks Offense

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Montero and Goldschmidt are definitely options. Pennington is definitely not. The rest are all up to you and how much you want to gamble. Let’s take a look at everyone.

1. Hill: Not a classical lead-off guy, but he has hit .304 with a .364 OBP in his time with the Diamondbacks. He’s also generally a good contact guy, as he’s only been over 100 Ks once in his career and in a good year, could smack 30 homers. What scares me is that in 2010, he hit .205 and batted .225 for Toronto in 2011 before getting traded for fellow up-and-down second baseman, Kelly Johnson. If he reverts to that form, your fantasy team will have a hard time competing in average unless it has several .300 hitters. 
2. Prado: Similar at the plate to new division rival, Marco Scutaro. He’ll put a lot of balls in play, but won’t hit many home runs, especially for a third baseman. I also worry that while he played 156 games in 2012, he’d never been over 140 before that. Eric Chavez is a capable backup so if Prado gets hurt or goes cold, he could have a hard time getting back on the field.
3. Kubel/Ross/Parra: Even with the loss of Upton, this is still a crowded outfield situation. Adam Eaton is waiting in the wings and while the team’s official website has him as the odd man out, he’s a .356 career hitter in the minor leagues and is a prolific stolen base guy, making him a true lead-off guy, which again, the team lacks. Also, let’s say the scenario above takes place with Prado and Chavez plays third, and does it well. If Kirk Gibson wants Prado back in the lineup, he can play left field. Parra is a great fielder, but probably won’t bring much offensive value to your fantasy team, especially in the outfield. Ross is a serious streak hitter and while it’s a pretty good bet that his numbers will be somewhere in the above projected range, I can see him getting cold and losing at bats to Eaton, especially as Ross isn’t a true center fielder at this point of his career. Kubel is a big power hitter, but his average will likely be below .260, he won’t steal any bags, and will likely bat after the heat of the Arizona lineup, which could hurt his runs scored. So, you’re relying a lot on only two categories, which isn’t ideal from an outfielder. Also, I could see both Kubel losing late-game at bats in close contests, as the best defensive outfield is Eaton in center, with Ross and Parra on the corners. Tread carefully with the outfielders.

Actually, tread carefully with most of this team.

Diamondbacks Pitching:

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Everyone listed except for Corbin. Not yet, anyway

I like this rotation a lot, but they have some drawbacks. I’ll start with Corbin and say that his WHIP will be way too high. Even in the minors, Corbin allowed a lot of hits. That just scares me. 

Kennedy is erratic. He’ll eat up a lot of innings, but his ERA has been too up and down in recent years. Again, a mid 3’s ERA over two years without having either year in the 3’s makes me really unsure of where he’ll go. He can either be a sleeper or bust, depending on what you think he’ll do.

McCarthy has never thrown 200 innings. His ERA has been rock solid, but that was in Oakland. In more hitter friendly environments, he’s struggled. He also isn’t a strikeout guy. Like Kennedy, I like him, but there are concerns.

Cahill does a decent job of keeping the runs from scoring. But think of him like Derek Lowe at his best. Ground ball pitchers usually have an ugly WHIP, and Cahill is no exception.

I like Miley a lot, but I am always hesitant about second year guys, especially early in the year.

Heck, even Putz is solid, but David Hernandez is a very good reliever, too. It’s not hard to see him taking a few saves from Putz.

Lastly, that’s a rotation that can be moved around a little so if you have any question, I’ll again direct you to the depth chart on the team Website. But also remember that Daniel Hudson was very strong in 2011 and will only be 26 on opening day. It’s not hard to imagine him finding a way into the five-man rotation during the summer when he gets healthy, although how aggressive they are with him could well depend on where they are in the playoff races of a very good National League West, and National League in general.

Fantasy Star: Montero

Montero is the antithesis of this team. You pretty much know exactly what you’re getting in all categories. I thought about Goldschmidt here and while I like him a lot, he’s a first baseman. He has a high ceiling, but is still young.

Montero on the other hand is a catcher, and a very good, reliable one at that. He’s not as good as Buster Posey, but will be as reliable as any other catcher. Some have higher ceilings, but they come with lower floors. If Montero’s ceiling and floor were an actual building, you’d have to crawl through it.

Fantasy Bust: Kubel

I cited the reasons above. I don’t trust his average and he won’t steal any bases. In a lot of ways, I look at him as a poor man’s Adam Dunn. His average is better, though not great. On the other hand, he’s not as powerful, though not bad.

He’s also likely a five or six hitter in this lineup and while there’s some skill up and down the order, that’s not a great run scoring position. So, you’re looking at a guy who will be pretty good in two categories, awful in one (possibly two if you count average), and marginal in the other. Outfielders need to be your most complete players and Kubel is anything but.

Fantasy Sleeper: Hernandez

If you’re not a starter or closer, you need to pass a certain checklist to have fantasy value. Let’s see how Hernandez checks out.

• Great strikeout rate: Hernandez has been right around one strikeout per inning in his career. In two seasons in Arizona, he’s been at 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Check!
• Reliable ERA: Hernandez’s worst ERA in two years with the Diamondbacks was 3.38. In total, he comes in at a 2.94 ERA with the snakes. Check!
• Low WHIP: Again, we’ll focus on his two years with the Diamondbacks. Under 1.14 both years, 1.082 total. Check!

Throw in the fact that while Putz is good, he’s getting older and Hernandez has already been a save vulture over the last few years. I like him as a $1 guy, or even a post-draft pickup.

More National League West Previews

• Colorado Rockies
• San Diego Padres
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• San Francisco Giants