Fantasy Baseball 2013: Miami Marlins Hitting and Pitching Projections


Miami Marlins —  Predicted Finish: Fifth Place, NL East

You may remember reading my preview of the Blue Jays, saying that I was somewhat relieved that the preview of that team would be a lot more interesting after they all but inherited the Miami Marlins roster. The more caring people out there may have thought something like, “Well this guy’s not very nice, he doesn’t seem to care at all about the poor guy who got the Marlins.” Fear not, as it all worked out about evenly anyway.

The Marlins did their typical post-World Series fire sale, only this time it came after a 69-93 last place finish. Just to be sure they had as little recognizable offensive talent as possible, they traded the newly-acquired Yunel Escobar to the Rays just as soon as they could.

As for what’s left on South Beach, let’s take a look at what we can expect.

 

Marlins Offense

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Juan Pierre LF 35 L 540 79 2 33 35 .280
Placido Polanco 3B 37 R 475 65 4 41 0 .282
Giancarlo Stanton RF 23 R 515 84 39 84 10 .278
Logan Morrison 1B 25 L 522 71 25 79 1 .255
Justin Ruggiano CF 31 R 415 42 17 52 12 .251
Rob Brantly C 23 L 325 44 10 42 2 .286
Donovan Solano 2B 25 R 340 35 5 36 12 .291
Adeiny Hechavarria SS 24 R 345 33 4 29 0 .246

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Stanton.

Morrison will be decent, but there are three big problems with him as a fantasy player.

  1. He’s never played more than 130 games in a Major League season.
  2. At the positions he’s eligible at, you can do much better.
  3. I would set the odds at no better than 50-50 that he’ll be on the Marlins on opening day and 25-75 that he’ll be there by the July 31 trade deadline.

You might take a look at some of the younger guys if you’re looking for some cheap value in a dynasty league, but I can’t see them contributing much for you in 2013.

 

Marlins Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Ricky Nolasco 30 R 195 46 11 140 0 4.56 1.35
2 Starter Henderson Alvarez 23 R 175 46 12 83 0 4.42 1.32
3 Starter Nathan Eovaldi 23 R 150 60 9 110 0 4.26 1.43
Closer Steve Cishek 27 R 69 32 8 79 23 2.74 1.25

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Cishek

We’ll start with the negatives. Nolasco is similar to Morrison in that his production is nothing spectacular, and he may not be a Marlin for a long time, anyway. Alvarez and Eovaldi are both young and I’d say have good futures, but they’re too raw for any fantasy value right now, especially with modest strikeout totals. Look for Jacob Turner and Wade LeBlanc to round out the staff, and I don’t think you can expect much from either in 2013.

Cishek’s WHIP can be a little high, but he’s kept his ERA at a great level for a reliever, going 2.63 in 2011 and 2.69 in 2012. The problem for him will be save chances, as the Marlins aren’t going to win many games. But when he’s out there, I don’t see him hurting your team much, and I even like him to pick up a few more wins than your average closer.

 

Fantasy Star: Stanton, and this isn’t even close.

  1. The guy is a stud. He’s hit 22 homers in 100 games, 34 in 150, and 37 in 123.
  2. Even if a few of those kids do much better than expected, they won’t get to Stanton’s level.

 

Fantasy Bust: Stanton, through no fault of his own. And again, this isn’t even close.

It’s not that I think Stanton will be bad, but think of it this way. If an NFL rookie goes undrafted, signs with a team, but gets cut in Training Camp, is he a bust? No. That’s more or less what this team is. Nobody else has any real expectations on them, so you can’t say they’ll be a bust. Expectations are so low here that if they go 72-90, Stanton might be a unanimous NL MVP selection.

Also, I expect Stanton to hit a lot of homers this year, but I can’t see him getting any pitches to hit in RBI situations. Heck, with guys like Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes around him in 2012, he hit 37 homers but only had 86 batted in. It almost doesn’t seem possible, but I am expecting even more homers this year with fewer batted in. Stanton’s never been a great average guy (though he’s still young and can improve there), and he won’t steal many bases. If he isn’t given enough help in runs or RBI, you’re looking at a potential first round pick who won’t reliably bring elite numbers in anything other than homers. Again, not his fault, but the talent around him is so bare than the numbers just can’t be that good.

This isn’t to take anything away from Polanco or Pierre, but they’re both getting up there and really aren’t every day players anymore. I just can’t imagine people getting on for Stanton and when they do, I can’t imagine opponents giving him a pitch to hit unless the outcome of the game is well in hand.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Donovan Solano

My expectations for him aren’t high this season, but the guy can hit for a good average. If he can stay on the field and show a bit more power, he can be a nice sleeper second baseman as the season gets going. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he moved up to the second spot to bat in front of Stanton.

 

More National League East Previews

Tags: 2013 Fantasy Baseball Giancarlo Stanton Miami Marlins

  • Kerry

    Awfully optimistic on Solano aren’t you? He’s never shown power OR the ability to steal in the minors. Not sure where you draw these numbers from.

    • Dixon

      I wouldn’t exactly call 5 homers optimistic. Maybe slightly.

      As for the steals, he swiped a decent amount with the big club last year in limited playing time (7) and I have a feeling that this team will be running a lot, because they don’t have many run generators outside of Stanton and maybe LoMo, and he won’t be batting near either in the lineup. So, they’ll have to play a VERY traditional NL style to score any runs