Angel Pagan Giants: How OF's Fantasy Value looks in return to SF

We already knew that Angel Pagan has an oxymoronic sounding name. But now we also know that Pagan has re-signed with the Giants. There’s obviously not much speculation on how he can do in San Francisco, or in the National League West. He just produced a fantasy season of 95 runs, 8 homers, 56 RBI, 29 steals, and a .288 average.

So, since we can’t speculate on any new surroundings, let’s ask a few simple questions. Will Pagan repeat his 2012 performance in 2013? Will he regress? Will he improve?

Let’s take a look.

The signing may not exactly shake up his value, but it may bring a false sense of his value to be locked in for what he put out last year.

See Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Andres Torres and then think again.  Sometimes, a guy’s value changes not because he is going to a new place, or moving back or up in the lineup, but simply that it is a new season.

I don’t want to preach to be wary of guys that have a good contract year and get a contract to remain with their current team, because they will mostly likely rest on their laurels. In fact, for Pagan, I am inclined to think the opposite. I think Angel is a very good player, and I am glad he found confidence leading off for the Giants in the wake of the Melky Cabrera suspension.

Pagan is a guy that should have baseline numbers of 80 runs, 5 homers, 50 RBI, 25 steals, and a .265 average in pretty much any lineup. He is remaining in San Francisco and if they bring back Marco Scutaro (as Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area says they expect to do), their Opening Day lineup will look remarkably similar to the one that won the World Series in October.

I would be happy to nab a guy like Pagan in the 9th round easy.

For a guy like Pagan I would see:

AB H R HR RBI SB AVG
Baseline 495 123 71 4 44 26 .248
Estimated 553 149 86 8 52 31 .269
Ceiling 601 168 97 11 61 37 .279

The hardest thing for us to really project are at-bats. Who knows when the injury bug will hit, or a guy who is mired in a bad slump loses his spot in the line and ends up hitting 8th or 9th? It doesn’t take much to give up so many at bats.

If Pagan stays healthy, atop the Giants lineup, he can and will produce. Thankfully Bruce Bochy isn’t the type of manager to shuffle or shake things up on a whim. Also, Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey are just getting better as they age.

I do want to warn against reaching for Pagan, because the reality is, if you don’t get him, there are other guys like him. He isn’t a unique player by any means. So if he is taken in the 8th round in front of where you were hoping to land him, just take, Carl Crawford, Shane Victorino or Shin-Soo Choo. There is no need to reach for Pagan, unless of course it is a fanboy pick, then I say go for it.

Tags: Angel Pagan Giants OF

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