Happy Birthday Kyle Seager

Kyle Seager takes a mighty swing. Image courtesy of flickr user Malingering.

I’ll often spend a little time on Baseball-Reference scanning through the birthday lists for the name of a player that jumps out at me. I’ll wish him a happy birthday, then spend 500 words talking about his fantasy baseball value.

The problem is that Kyle Seager‘s birthday was November 3rd and my lazy self didn’t get around to those 500 words I intended. Being that Kyle Seager’s birthday was weeks ago, this post is no longer noteworthy. On the other hand, a fantasy baseball player profile for Kyle Seager isn’t exactly newsworthy, so this post comes at as good a time as any.

But wait, there is one more piece of bad news. This is the second time I’ve used the joke about a player’s lack of newsworthiness to excuse my posting tardiness.  Layered on top of my questionable work ethic is the fact that I’m recycling old jokes that were originally marginal, at best. I have a lot to atone for, but I’ll make it up to you by giving you some fantasy baseball insight on Kyle Seager, our not-quite-birthday-boy.

Kyle Seager was a fantasy baseball surprise in 2012, scattering 155 games across the infield for the Seattle Mariners. Being that he was most likely a waiver wire grab, owners had to be stoked with his 2012 line:

Since Seager just turned 25 on November 3rd, (Happy birthday, btw!) fantasy owners might be wondering what we can expect as his ceiling. My opinion is that we saw his ceiling in 2012, but that might not the worst thing if your expectations are reasonable.

His defensive versatility and his bat have certainly earned him a spot in Seattle’s lineup, (Heck, someone needs to be in that lineup, right?) so he’ll get the plate appearances to repeat the counting stats he put up. His last couple of seasons in the minors saw him steal bases in the low double digits, so his 13 in 2012 seems about where we should expect him to be in 2013.

The biggest surprise in 2012 was his power. Are 20 homers repeatable? Perhaps. His HR/FB (home run per fly ball) percentage jumped from 3.4% in 2012 to 7.2% in 2012. Given that he’s a young player entering his POWER PRIME (that felt like it needed to be in all caps), I think it’s fair to give him at least a 7% on that, which puts 20 home runs again within reach.

Notice that I put his SO% (strikeout percentage) next to his line. I think this is significant in that his rate in the minors was 13.3% and his MLB number is trending in a good direction. This means that instead of simply striking out, he might bat a few more of those balls into play, therefore giving him a shot to raise his .259 batting average. It doesn’t take that many more hits to raise an average to .270, which would be a solid boost.

The Bottom Line

Don’t get your hopes up too high because we’ve probably gotten a glimpse of Seager’s ceiling. But don’t think he was playing over his head either; 2013 should like a lot like 2012.

This wil put him somewhere between the 12th and 16th ranked third baseman, and good for a few dollar flyer. I ran the math on him and here is what the spreadsheet spit out: