Over nearly the last decade, very few fantasy baseball hitters have been as reliable as Matt Holliday. But last year, the St. Louis Cardinals’ star had some injury issues and let fantasy owners down a little bit.
So, will this be a bounce back year, or was 2011 a sign of things to come? Let’s find out.
As always, we start with the stuff that isn’t so good. Who wants to finish on a bad note anyway?
There are two major issues with Holliday.
One is that he’s now 32 and missed nearly 40 games last year with injury. When he was in the lineup, there was a large portion of time where was not very effective.
Now, 32 is not a particularly old for baseball standards, but you don’t want to see someone starting to suffer from injuries as they get beyond 30. That is a warning sign.
Holliday can still hit. With a true masher, you want them to draw more walks, get fewer at-bats, which helps the average. With Holliday it’s the opposite. You want more at-bats so his power numbers go up.
The other problem is that other than a half-season with Oakland, this is the first time Holliday will not have the benefit of either Coors Field or Albert Pujols.
Holliday can hit. He is going to be around .300, if not closer to the .320-.330 range. The Cardinals don’t have Pujols anymore, but their offense will still be plenty potent enough for Holliday’s numbers to be exceptional.
This is also not a player who’s ever really been injury prone before. You don’t like seeing injuries, but just because they were a big part of one season doesn’t mean that will be consistent. St. Louis has the outfield depth to get Holliday some days off, keeping him fresh.
This is a career .315 hitter, whose lowest single season batting average is .290. He isn’t a real threat for 40 homers, but somewhere in the 25-35 range would not be at all shocking.
|Best Case Scenario||547||182||99||31||119||7||62||83||.333|
|Worst Case Scenario||489||144||77||18||79||4||53||84||.294|
Cracker Jacks Player Rater: 41
Dixon’s Player Rater: 24