There is no more fascinating player in the game than the Marlins’ right fielder. He has a lot of raw potential and will be a fantasy baseball force for a long time. We’ll get into all of that momentarily.
First I need to say this: I will not pass up the opportunity to profile a man named Giancarlo. If you bring a slap hitting platoon middle infielder to my attention with that name, he will be profiled. Consider that a challenge.
But now, it’s time to get serious. The reason Stanton is so interesting is the position he plays. Right field is incredibly deep. You can almost throw about 10 guys into a hat, do a random draw, and get extremely similar results.
Stanton actually has a golden opportunity to really create separation this year. Sure, there are guys like Jay Bruce (who we’ll get to at a later date), but Stanton is even potentially a step above that.
So, let’s take a look at some specifics for the man they call Giancarlo. We’ll finish on a good note, so we’re going to start with the negatives.
The first thing that jumps out at you is the poor batting average. Stanton is a career .261 hitter, which is hardly elite.
This is caused by a striking out too often. Make no mistake; everyone is going to make outs. That’s not a problem. But 289 career strikeouts against 104 walks is a terrible ratio. That is something that has to improve.
If it doesn’t get better and pitchers find the holes, some of the other numbers will come down.
Power, power, and power. Oh, and his name is Giancarlo.
In all seriousness, we’re looking at a guy who’s barely 22, has 56 career bombs to his name, and has 875 career at-bats. That works out to a ratio of better than one homer for every 16 at-bats. Carrying that out to 600 at bats in a season, and we’re looking at around 38-40 home runs, and it gets better.
See, while pitchers are adjusting to Stanton, he’s adjusting to them. A .261 career average isn’t great, but he’s not quite at a Mark Reynolds level, where a .245 season would be on par from .675 for Ted Williams.
Consider that, and also remember that the Marlins are now better than they have been in recent years. We don’t know how the new stadium will be, but the old one wasn’t exactly a launching pad, so it won’t be any worse.
This is going to be a big year for Giancarlo Stanton in fantasy baseball. Look for his average to improve. Yes, he’ll still strike out a lot, but that isn’t always a big deal. The walks will also come in, which will inflate the average even more.
|Best Case Scenario||533||147||93||46||106||9||83||143||.276|
|Worst Case Scenario||523||133||78||32||83||3||65||176||.254|
Even in a “bad” season, you just risk him being on the high end of the pack of right fielders. In a good year, he’s on par with guys like Jose Bautista as a truly elite right fielder, not far from the Ryan Braun’s and Matt Kemp’s on the overall outfielder list.
Cracker Jacks Player Rater: 21
Dixon’s Player Rater: 26
What about you? Where do you rank Giancarlo? Are you high on him this year or does he need another year of seasoning?