Ask Nash: How to get out of the cellar.

By on May 18, 2012 in Ask Nash, How To, Strategy 0

Lineup Cards

I am in the cellar of my traditional 10 team league, with 35 total points.  I know it is early, but I can’t imagine making a run at first.  However, I certainly do not want to be dead last!  What can/should I do?! I wish to remain anonymous so the guys in my league don’t ridicule me.

Hey there Anonymous,
I know from personal experience that the cellar is the worst place to be.  In my first “official” season in the main league I currently play in, I was dead last for about the whole season and it was an awful feeling.  What I did wrong in that situation was that I started streaming hitters, and I didn’t really have a specific plan.  I just hoped to catch up in every category.

There are 3 things you need to be mindful of:

  1. Know your limits. In some leagues there are limitations (typically just to pitchers) Like 200 or so starts or an innings max or min.
  2. Who is available in free agency? If all the mashers in the league are taken, as hard as it may be to do, you must punt HRs rest of way so you can focus on what’s available.
  3. You need a trade partner.  If a guy has better players on his bench than you do in some of your active spots, you may want to trade your best trade chips for 2 or 3 guys that will really help you.

Now here are 3 things for you to focus on:

  1. First, you need to check out the categories that are closest overall. If steals are only separated be one steal a spot, then that would be a GREAT category to catch up in.   Same with Ks for pitching. It is pretty tough to bank on guys for wins, BUT if you start trading and picking up high K guys you should be able to make your move through that category.
  2. Second, you need to know which categories you are closest and furthest away in.  If you are dead last in categories like ERA, WHIP, and AVG they may be lost causes, depending how far behind you are in.  Rather, focus on counting stats because they are easiest to catch up in.
  3. A 10 team 5×5 league has 550 points available, and the winner can vary anywhere from 70-85, depending on the league. You should first focus on getting to 50 points.  It may not get you out of the cellar but it is a great goal to set right now. Once you achieve that goal you should reassess where you can get to next. Maybe it’s 60 points or just focusing on categories that might close the gap between you and the next guy!

Hope this helps and good luck!

Don’t trust a man named Dunn.

By on May 17, 2012 in Player Profiles 0

Adam DunnOne of my best friends growing up was Joey Dunn. Absolutely great guy but when we get together to play basketball you couldn’t trust him when he said he was good to go. One thing you need to know about Joey Dunn is that he was born to tear phone books in half. He is only 5’3″ but he could easily bench press twice his body weight.

He spent a lot of time lifting weights. We would want to play basketball, he would be coming straight from the weight room. Then he’d spend the next 37 hours taking practice shots so he wouldn’t use his muscle-bound biceps to launch the ball 9 feet over the basket when he shot, although we would just end up blocking his shot every time anyway. [Get that girlie weight room garbage shot out of my house!]

We’d all hurry up, only to then wait forever on Joey Dunn to find his shot. Never trust a man named Dunn.

I don’t know why I told you that story. Actually, I do know why I told you that story. It’s because I think of my buddy Joey Dunn every time I look at Adam Dunn‘s numbers. I then concocted a tenuous thread between Joey Dunn’s love of the weight room and the power hitting Adam Dunn. After that, I made a flimsy connection between the title of the post and the fact that we couldn’t trust Joey to hurry the heck up and play ball.

I made you walk much too far on this post, only to get to the point, which could’ve been stated by now, 250 words in. But we made it, so let me say it: I still don’t quite trust Adam Dunn this year. *whew* It feels good to finally get that off my chest.

In 2012, Adam Dunn has 11 homers through 117 at bats. He only had 11 homers total in 415 ABs for all of 2011, which paired with a .159 average and 177 strikeouts was the worst hitting performance of all time.

So do the 11 homers so far mean that Dunn isn’t done? (I’ve been sitting on that pun for a while.)

First of all, a homer roughly every 10 ABs is high even for Big Donkey in his heyday. But he’s certainly capable of knocking one out every 20 ABs or so. Let’s call 500 ABs for him, which would give him approx. 25 home runs, and maybe a few more with his hot pace. There is value there.

Second, we must keep in mind, however, that he is striking out at a rate that is high even for him, and that’s saying something. This won’t get any better.

Third point, which is really just an extension of the second point, which ultimately is to support my main point, is that his batting average will kill you. It always has, always will. He’s a career .244 hitter and I’m not sure we can count on that in this point of his career.

I began the season saying that Dunn was undraftable. I stand behind that. I’ll admit that it’s been encouraging to see him prove many of the haters from last season wrong. He really has jumped out of the gate to look like the Adam Dunn of old. The problem was that the Dunn of old was a one trick pony to begin with, and I’m still skeptical that he still has that trick in the bag.

You’d need close to the 2008 power numbers (40 homers) of Dunn to make him worth while. I say this because I feel strongly that if you are looking at 25-28 homers from him that you have much better options with much less risk. You can grab a guy like Mark Trumbo, Ryan Howard after the injury, Paul Goldschmidt once he heats up, or even Carlos Pena. Or settle for a home run total in the low 20′s and think Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Gaby Sanchez, et al. Those guys will hit for a higher average.

The take away is to hold loosely to the numbers he’s putting up now. Make sure you don’t count on him as your first and only option at 1B. If you are riding his hot streak now, then have a contingency plan, because you can’t trust a man named Dunn.

12 Angry Men

By on May 17, 2012 in Miscellany 3

Baseball Fight

I have been serving on Jury duty for the last week and a half, which made me think back to one of my favorite movies, “12 Angry Men.” Those day dreams inspired this list of the 12 angriest men I have seen in professional baseball, currently or in the past.

C – AJ Pierzynski
Ok no doubt if you have ever seen A.J. Pierzynski play you know he is as firey as they come.  My brother loves to recall the time when AJ struck out and he turned to the Ump and completely lost it on him.  I bet you’re thinking, “but plenty of guys do that…”  You’re right, but this time in particular Pierzynski had struck out swinging.

1B – Pete Rose
Oh Charlie hustle. Nothing needs to be said about Pete Rose, but I’m gonna say it anyway.  This is a guy that once ran over a catcher in an ALL-STAR game for Pete’s sake!  (Catch what I did there?)  This guy essentially embodied every saying about playing hard: balls to the wall, leave it on the field and it ain’t over until it is over.

2B – Roberto Alomar
Robbie played baseball full of gusto and emotion, day in and day out.  Unfortunately his emotions came spilling out one evening when he spat on an umpire in a heated argument on the field.  This actually saddened me very much as a young guy because Robbie was one of my favorite players until that moment.

3B – George Brett
On a lighter note, I assume we all remember George Brett’s terrific freak out after he had a home run overturned due to the amount of pine tar on his bat handle.  Remember the good ole days when seeking a competitive advantage was only pertaining to equipment?!  Too much tar, scuffing the ball, corked bats…  Those were the days.

SS – Dustin Pedroia
Ok, this is a s stretch as I am not sure how much shortstop Dustin Pedroia has played in the bigs, but he was drafted as a shortstop out of ASU. It’s my list and I never pass up a chance to fawn over Dustin Pedroia.  This guy is PERFECT for Beantown. The dude can’t complete a sentence without using at least 1 explicative.  There is a great story I read a while back of a security guard not admitting Pedroia into the stadium (must’ve been an away game) and Dustin replies: “Buddy, I’m the %&$#ing guy that took your middle reliever deep yesterday!”

LF – Moises Alou
Moises Alou may not be remembered as an emotional player, but his epic freak out over the “Bartman” situation is one I will never forget.  I feel like he was moments away from climbing the rail into the crowd to snatch the ball from said “stu-per fan”!

CF – Juan Gonzalez
Recently I was texting with Dixon remembering a time when I was watching Juan Gonzalez on TV, yelling toward the official scorekeeper about a hit of his that was scored an error.  He eventually got the scorekeeper to change their call. Don’t mess with Juan Gone, especially when a batting title is on the line!

RF – Bo Jackson
I actually cannot find a guy with a more friendly disposition than Bo Jackson in all of sports.  But if you break a bat over your knee and you make the list!  (Editor’s note: See also Bradley, Milton.)  Let’s ask Brian Bozworth how angry Bo was in pads.

DH – Delmon Young
Unfortunately, MLB has a policy against fun and won’t allow it’s clips to be used. But I did find this. Let’s not forget that Delmon Young recently got charged with a hate crime in NY. I hope he can begin to mature as a person and a player, because the kid has some serious anger issues.

SP – Nolan Ryan
Can you ever get tired of recalling the day Nolan Ryan showed Robin Ventura how the good ole boys do it?! With all due respect to Robin Ventura – who was a great player in his own right – because I actually love the job he is doing in Chicago this season.

RP – John Rocker
Rocker was about as dumb as they come and he proved it consistently with really culturally insensitive comments while speaking about riding the F train in New York city.  Rocker always looked like he was chomping on a mouth full of rocks during game times. Maybe he was catching pieces that fell from his brain cavity.

Manager – Ozzie Guillen
Ozzie Ozzie Ozzie, you are known to ALL as a firecracker in the clubhouse and we were certainly excited about the chances of you taking the spotlight away from the new stadium and huge signing of Jose Reyes, but did you have to be controversial so quickly?!

I hope none of the examples I posted here were offensive. They were certainly not meant to be!  But things like Robbie Alomar spitting on an Ump or Delmon throwing his bat in protest are things that I would NEVER want my future kids to imitate.

With that thought I am reminded of a quote that I believe is sometimes credited to George Santayana:

“Those who ignore the past are doomed to repeat it.”

Can you think of the 13th angriest man that I may have missed? Share with us in the comments.

Fantasy Baseball Trading: How to use the Veto

By on May 16, 2012 in How To, League Manager, Rules, Trades 0

If you want to be a successful fantasy baseball player, you have to know the rules of the league you are in. Know what statistics are used, innings minimums/maximums, at-bats minimums/maximums, that kind of stuff. That should go without saying, but too often people are left clueless over things they should know (“I would never have drafted Jay Bruce if I knew that Ks against was used”). Members of a league also need to know how a trade goes from two parties agreeing on it, to actually becoming official.

In the case of some leagues, the LM has all of the power. He’ll see a trade, look over it, and approve it or decline it. This is not something that I recommend, as there’s too much potential for someone to complain about a Conflict of Interest. No, I like the veto system.

First of all, I rarely ever vote a trade down. Normally, I am of the mindset that two people who know the game entered into an agreement, let that be the end of it. I know that both Clave and Nash share that attitude far more often than not.

That attitude is fine 99 percent of the time. Even if a trade ends up being one-sided, it doesn’t mean that it was a bad move when it was made. After all, you can’t predict that someone’s going to get hurt, or go through an awful slump. Every now and again, I will see a trade between two people who are related, or I know to be close friends. If said trade is blatantly one-sided, then I will vote it down, especially if the team getting the better end of the deal is contending while the other isn’t.

But maybe you’re a little more proactive, or up in the air on the issue. I am here to tell you that it’s fine to be that way. There is nothing wrong with looking at a trade and voting it down, even if you don’t think collusion was at play.

It’s also okay to try to get the league’s attention on the matter. Go to the message board and say something like this.

“Hey, I noticed Person A traded Matt Kemp to Person B for J.P. Arencibia. I would really like to know what Person A was thinking, because this looks like a horrible trade to me. Unless I hear something good, I am going to vote it down and think the other owners should do the same.”

That is a perfectly fine post to make. Where league mates get annoyed is if a person makes a post that somehow makes it seem as though this trade was done to screw him over. I guarantee that there isn’t a league with 10 or more people in it that doesn’t include at least one of these guys. If there’s a way to quarantine these kinds of players, I would love to hear it. But if we’re looking at potentially vetoing a trade, don’t be that guy. That’s where people get annoyed and tune you out.

It is also not okay to just decide to vote down any trades that involve someone you don’t really care for, or to accept any moves that involve friends of yours while taking a hard line on others. If I am running a league, the quickest way for someone to get the boot out is to show inconsistent effort, and those kind of actions certainly qualify.

So, if you’re an LM (or a prospective one), this is a blueprint for what to do in the veto period.

  • Give a period of time between 24 and 48 hours between an accepted trade and a processed one for league members to approve it or vote it down.
  • Make it so just under half of the league has to vote it down for the veto to take place. If you’re in a 10-12 league team, four people works well.
  • Don’t ever automatically process a trade. There are two problems with doing this. One is that you don’t give the rest of your league a chance to be heard. Two is that you leave yourself vulnerable to be accused of something, even if you’re not doing anything wrong. Think about it. If the trade involves you, you know about it immediately and will process it then. If the trade involves two other members, it may take you a few hours to process the move, meaning that the players won’t show up on their new teams until the next day. This can make a huge difference, especially in a weekly head to head league. Make the period of time between the trade being accepted and processed consistent and known to the whole league. They have no room to complain when this happens.
  • Don’t veto a trade as an LM unless it’s obvious collusion. Obviously, if we’re talking about someone who is about to quit the league unloading his best players to a friend of his, step in and explain why. Otherwise, your vote shouldn’t count any more than any of the league’s other members.
  • If you’re trying to decide if it’s obvious collusion, talk to a league member that you trust. Better yet, talk to someone not involved in the league in any way, but who knows the game. There’s a difference between obvious collusion (which needs to be struck down by the LM) and a bad trade (which needs to be left open to the rest of the league). If you’re having a hard time placing which group a certain trade belongs in, seek a second or third opinion.
  • Make the period of time known to the league members. Usually, 24 hours is plenty, as it gives everyone a chance to check the league at a reasonable time of day, regardless of time zone. Depending on how active your league us, you may want to move it to 36 or 48 hours. Don’t go beyond 48, the people who are involved in the trade need to know what their team is going to look like. If a person goes two days without voting or making his opinion known, he has no right to complain.
If you are a member of a league.
  • Be consistent. Again, don’t express outrage when a guy you really don’t like ends up on the right end of a bad deal, but endorse another bad deal that benefits a friend, or hurts a person you don’t care for. If you are inconsistent in any way, I suggest you look for other leagues to play in, because you shouldn’t be in that one for a long time.
  • Don’t be afraid to be active, or campaign. If you think a trade is bad, make it known to other people in your league. Maybe it will work, maybe it won’t, but there’s nothing wrong with sticking to your guns.
  • If you decide to let all trades through, keep your mouth shut if a team gets hot as a result of it. At the risk of getting political, this is similar advice I would give someone who doesn’t vote in an election. If you don’t take the time to vote or care, that’s your business and I won’t question you on it. But I also won’t be too patient to listen to you complain that things aren’t going the way you wanted them to. Be active or get out of the way. Either as fine, as long as you stick to the same guns throughout the course of a season.

It’s time to assess your fantasy baseball team.

By on May 15, 2012 in Strategy 4

Kansas City Royals right fielder Jeff Francoeur (21)
We are a full month into the season. On some assorted players we still have too small a sample size to make any concrete conclusions, we can certainly begin to assess our teams and see how we match up.

Just because you are middle of the pack or worse in your league(s) doesn’t mean it is time to blow up the squad and start over.  In fact, the very opposite may be true.  Sometimes you really need to let things play out for the long haul for your off-season work to pay off!

In some leagues I have a strategy that I feel my teams are still primed for a run at the title, despite being bottom third of teams or middle of the pack.  In others I have made a few trades to ensure I can gain some ground I feel that I am losing.

In one league standard 5×5 league I have made about 3 trades recently and had to drop and add some players.  In a league like this there is much less advanced strategy on who to pick up and what to go after because counting stats rule in a standard 5×5.

So I went after a guy that I believe is gonna be scary down the stretch if he comes close to his projected numbers for the year: Albert Pujols.  He is off to the worst start of his career and he may in fact max out around 35 homers. But if he can still mash 40 and the rest of that lineup gets going around him I will get almost a full season worth of stats in 5 months.

In a 5×5 standard league a guy like Pedro Alvarez is very valuable when he is on the upswing as well.  I am in leagues that count Ks against hitters and in those leagues I won’t touch Pedro, but with an injury to Kevin Youkilis in a 5×5 – and  without better options – I was glad to pick him up for 15 days or so.

In a couple other leagues I have the appearance that perhaps I am punting some categories, such as pitching counting stats, which tends to be a riskier play.  However, I firmly believe that if I can exhibit a little more patience I will have a better sense if my strategy will work or not.

The point of all this is to say that you need to play each league separately.  That is the beauty and the pain of having multiple teams in fantasy baseball, because each league can be VERY different.

So let’s leave it with a focus a standard 5×5 league:

  1. Don’t fall too far behind in hitting. Hitters are harder to come by towards the end of the season.
  2. Make sure you monitor your pitching limits closely. If you are loaded with pitchers, or streaming a ton already, you may be in danger of maxing out your starts way too early, and that will hurt you in the end.
  3. Keep an eye on the June call ups. If you are middle of the pack you should at least have 1 or 2 guys you can dump for a spark from a rookie call up.  Imagine if you would have parted ways with a guy like Jeff Francoeur for Bryce Harper a week ago.

 

Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 14

By on May 14, 2012 in Dixon's Picks 0

Ryan Vogelsong

Welcome, one and all to another edition of Dixon’s Picks. This is something of a weird week for two reasons.

One, every team plays every day this week. Of course, this excludes rainouts that may happen, but we have  a full slate of games. So, pitchers going on Monday and Tuesday are good streaming plays, especially in counted categories. Barring injuries and again, rainouts, those pitchers will each be going twice this week.

Number two, this weekend will give us the first weekend of Interleague Play. Get used to it, as starting next year, the Astros will be an American League team, each league will have 15 teams, and Interleague Play will be going all year. I will refrain from jamming my traditionalist point of view down everyone’s throat right now, but instead give some advice on how to stream Interleague Play. For that matter, you can take this as some advice on how to draft next year.

The only people that really matter to me are the designated hitters playing in National League parks, like David Ortiz. When the Red Sox are playing in the National League, it’s not a good time to have him. Even if they bite the bullet and play him at first base, it stands to reason that Boston will pull him for defense in the late innings, costing Papi an at-bat or two. So, if you have a guy like that on your team, look for a replacement in weeks where they are playing in NL parks.

As for pitchers, I know of some people who pretty much don’t ever roster American Leaguers. In this case, you have to look for National Leaguers in AL parks. I don’t buy that idea. While it is tougher to face an American League lineup, it’s also easier to go deep in a game, as managers don’t have to worry about the pinch hitter.

When streaming pitchers in Interleague Play, use the same strategies as normal. If the pitchers are going against a bad offense, give them a green light. If they are going against the Yankees or Red Sox, don’t trick yourself into thinking streaming is a good idea if that team is in a National League park.

So, now that we’ve gotten off of that sidebar, let’s take a look at some good guys to stream this week.

 

Ryan Vogelsong – Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

Projected Starts: Monday vs. Colorado, Saturday vs. Oakland

AT&T Park is a stadium that’s almost always a good luck for streaming. So, having someone going twice there in a week is a good thing.

It’s not exactly news that the Rockies are not the same offensive team away from Coors Field. They never play particularly well in San Francisco, so the first start is a fine one to go on.

As for the A’s, they haven’t won in San Francisco since 2008. Ironically, the Giants haven’t won in Oakland since 2009, but we’ll get into that next month.

Regardless of who wins or where the game is, these teams tend to play close, low scoring games when they collide. Yes, there are exceptions, but for the most part, those came in years when the teams had much more offensive talent. With Yoenis Cespedes and Pablo Sandoval out, these games aren’t going to feature a lot of runs.

I like Ryan Vogelsong to get two wins this week. But he’s a good play because even if he gets zero, the other numbers will be there.

Vogelsong’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    14    10      6      4       2     12     2.57     1.14

 

Jeanmar Gomez – Pitcher, Cleveland Indians

Projected Starts: Monday at Minnesota, Saturday vs. Miami

Part of streaming is that you have to be willing to gamble on occasion. Sure, there are bigger names likely available to you, but Jeanmar Gomez has been a solid arm thus far this season. The problem with pitchers and their numbers is that this early in the season, it doesn’t take much to inflate things.

Entering the week, Gomez has a 4.66 ERA. But, if he allowed four earned runs instead of eight in his last start against a powerful White Sox lineup, his ERA would be sub-3.50. Take that for whatever it’s worth.

Against the Twins and Marlins, I like his chances at a few quality starts. Even better is that the less risky start is the first one. If you’re in a head to head league or get some good starts in roto, you might be in a position where you can afford to bench Gomez in Saturday’s start against the Marlins.

All in all, I like this play – and Gomez is available in over 99 percent of ESPN leagues.

Gomez’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    13     9      5      5       1     11     3.46     1.08


Raul Ibanez – Left Fielder/Designated Hitter, New York Yankees

Monday-Tuesday: at Baltimore. Wednesday-Thursday: at Toronto. Friday-Sunday: vs. Cincinnati.

We’ve all established why streaming hitters is a shaky idea, especially as it relates to batting average. Take my last week’s pick, Chipper Jones. Last week, he hit a paltry .238. Bad pick, right? Well, if he got one more hit, he would have been at .285. So, it doesn’t take much to pick up the slack. Still, some people stream hitters, especially with injuries. So, let’s take a look at Ibanez.

The American League East is a good division to hit in. So, when a hot hitter is going against AL East pitching in four of seven games, and in an AL East stadium all week, things are looking good. Ibanez is making the most out of his playing time, as he hit over .350 last week with four homers.

In all, this is a good play. Raul Ibanez is a type to worry about losing at bats in Interleague Play, but it’s all AL parks this week. The average is of course a gamble, but a hot hitter in the Yankees lineup batting in hitter’s parks is going to produce some power numbers.

Ibanez’s Projections for the week

    H         AB          R         HR          RBI           SB         AVG     
    7     23      7      3        9       0     .304

Steps that Must be taken with Struggling Stars

By on May 14, 2012 in Strategy 0

2008 MLB All-Star Parade, Albert Pujols
It’s not exactly a secret that Albert Pujols hasn’t exactly been the player we’ve grown used to seeing. The change of scenery may do him well in the long run, but the first month in Anaheim (or Los Angeles, or Los Angeles of Anaheim, I can never keep it straight), was not a good one.

Sometimes stars just start poorly. In other cases, it may be an injury, or a singular bad season. It could also be the sign of a significant career downturn. But if you have a superstar that you had big expectations for who’s literally playing like a scrub, what do you do? Well, take a look at these ideas.

Put him on your bench. I will admit, this is a lot easier in leagues with deep benches, or with players at deep positions. First base is a deep position, so there are generally plenty of options on the waiver wire, even if you have to ride a hot streak, dump that player when he cools off, and sign another player.

Sure, the expectations were great and you probably used a high pick (or spent a lot of money) on him, but you can’t let anyone keep your team down for too long. If Pujols is struggling and a hot-hitting first baseman is on the waiver wire or available for a cheap trade, grab that guy and let Pujols ride the pine for a while.

The beauty of the bench is that slumping players occupying it aren’t hurting your team. In the case of Pujols, when he begins to show his Hall of Fame form again, just put him back on your active roster.

Don’t release him. In the case of players like Pujols, Can’t Drop Lists usually make this a non-option anyway. But if we’re talking about a Tier-2 star, chances are still pretty good that he will come out of his slump.

Chances are also pretty good that he will heat up when the weather does. It may sound like a cliche, but players do tend to perform to the numbers on the back of their cards.

If a hitter is generally around .300 but struggling to stay at the Mendoza Line, the extra hits are going to come later in the year. He may or may not get back to the .300 range, but that kind of hitter isn’t going to go from .300 to .200 without any warning.

Let’s put it this way. Hypothetically, speaking, let’s say that a star is hitting .200 after the first month of the season, which we’ll call 100 at-bats. If that hitter ends up with 600 at-bats with a .260 average, we’re looking at a 156-hit season. To go from .200 in 100 at-bats to .260 in 600 at-bats, a hitter will need to bat .272 in the remaining 500 at-bats.

That’s not a great average, but it’s probably coming with some power as well. Also, if we’re talking about a perennial .300 hitter, a final average of .260 is a conservative guess, even if he started at .200.

If you release a player, you’re going to lose that kind of production to someone else in your league, and it won’t cost your rival anything. On that note…

Shop the slumping star. Allow me to tell you a story, a true one. Fairly late into the 2010 season, I was in a league and looking to acquire Chase Utley. I will certainly admit that I was trying to get the better end of the deal, but it was also clear that Utley was not the player that had really spear-headed the Phillies’ consecutive National League titles in 2008 and 2009.

An owner that I have a great deal of respect for objected to the move (which was eventually voted down), referring to Utley as a “top five” player, not a top five second baseman, but overall player. Utley finished that season with 75 runs, 16 homers, 65 RBI, 13 steals, and a .275 average. Certainly not bad, but not a top five season. In 2010, Utley just did not play enough games to deserve that recognition. He had the same problem in 2011 and is experiencing the same issues in 2012.

For the previous five seasons, Utley had averaged better than 110 runs, 29 homers, 101 RBI, and 15 steals, all while hitting a clean .300. You can clearly make a case that those numbers are “top five” worthy, and can certainly make that claim when you factor in the fact that he’s a second baseman.

The secret may be out on Utley now, but in 2010 I could have robbed that guy blind on a trade if I wanted to. He was focused on the name, not the numbers. Again, this was a good owner who knows his stuff.

The point is that people get caught in names. They know who the top players of the last few years have been. While they’re probably aware that stars are slumping, they also probably feel that said stars will eventually get back to normal.

So, if you have a slumper, make some of the guys who look at names over numbers some offers. The worst they will ever do is say no.

You’re not going to find a bigger name in baseball than Albert Pujols. So, if you have him and are getting tired of the lack of production, make an offer to a league rival where the numbers greatly benefit you. Many owners will be so consumed with the fact that they’re getting Pujols that they won’t pay attention to the fact that they are getting robbed.

It’s certainly not unethical to try to get the most out of a trade. If you have a big name guy who’s not performing, you’ve stumbled into a golden opportunity to get a great trade for yourself. You owe it to yourself to at least try to make that happen.

Ask Nash: Moving Star Players

By on May 11, 2012 in Ask Nash, Trades 0

20110214-127*Note* This is an email exchange. The font in bold is from the person asking the question. The non-bold font comes from me.

Nash,

I’m relatively new to fantasy sports, I am sitting toward the bottom of my league and I am getting a ton of trade offers for my best players:  Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Verlander.
Most trades are 2:1 3:2 etc.

I wonder if that sort of move would help me rest of way?

Erick

Erick,

It really depends on the players you would receive in return, could you give me an example.  Also maybe hit me with your whole roster so I know where you need improvement.

Nash

Yes of course, recently I was offered: Yoenis Cespedes, Madison Bumgarner and David Robertson for Cargo and Verlander

My roster is:

C- Alex Avila
1B- Eric Hosmer
2B- Brandon Phillips
3B- Michael Young
SS- Asdrubal Cabrera
1B/3B- Freddy Freeman
2B/SS- Ian Desmond
OF- Carlos Gonzalez
OF- Austin Jackson
OF- Shane Victornio
OF- Martin Prado
OF- Jon Jay
UTL- Adam Dunn

BENCH- Daniel Murphy

P-Justin Verlander
P- Shaun Marcum
P- Yovanni Gallardo
P- Brandon McCarthy
P- John Axford
P- Gavin Floyd
P- Jake Peavy
P- Kenley Jansen
P- Grant Balfour

BENCH- Bartolo Colon, Max Scherzer

DL- Chris Carpenter

Ok, that is an interesting trade offer, essentially it’s fair assuming that you are falling behind in saves.  That is also taking into account Cargo’s bad road splits.  However, I would not accept it.  I think that if you were really trying to shop those guys you could auction them off like original Star Wars figurines on Ebay!  Verlander is elite, and Cargo is ELITE at home and on the road he is serviceable enough.  Over the course of the rest of this season I trust Cargo more than Cespedes.

It is still early enough to be on top of the waiver wire, and free agency to get guys in your lineup that will help you come back without breaking up your core.

Nash

Fantasy Baseball Call Up Report: The Chicago Cubs

By on May 10, 2012 in Player Profiles 0

Everyone understands that the Chicago Cubs are in rebuilding mode. Unfortunately, there isn’t any consensus on how long “rebuilding” should last. Many have long since given up on the Cubs, not expecting any rebuild to ever come. Others are like, “It’s been a whole month! Why aren’t we winning yet?”

But knowing that the Cubs are now in good hands begs the question: “When will the Cubs call up their prospects?”

Anthony Rizzo Some profile Anthony Rizzo as having a Joey Votto type ceiling. I project him a smidge lower than that, but even tossing around a comparison to Joey Votto has to get folks excited and anxious. Rizzo has talent.

I think it’s important to read a variety of solid scouting reports on a player, so I’ll link a few here, here, and here, plus I’ll share my own.

Rizzo has already beaten cancer in his young life, so we know he’s tough as nails. He’s shown ability to adjust at the plate, but he still has a long swing, with a touch of an uppercut to it. That’s great for the long ball, but bad for strikeouts on the Major League level.

He’s knocked over 30 homers in the minors, but that was the Pacific Coast league, known for being generous with the long ball. Still, 30+ homers will be had by Rizzo in the majors, just not in the next couple years (remember, he’s just 22).

He’s got a good eye, with a walk rate over 10%, so he’ll be a good all around major league hitter, even consistently hitting .300+.

But let’s not forget that the Cubs have Bryan LaHair already hitting well at 1B. While he doesn’t have the sex appeal of Rizzo, it’s worth noting that LaHair has gotten better year after year in his career. I think LaHair will settle in around .270 with 22-25 home runs. That’s about what you’d get with Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez, Lucas Duda, and Adam Lind. You can’t expect more than that out of Rizzo his first couple of seasons.

Regardless, if Rizzo is indeed called up sooner, rather than later, you can expect LaHair to keep his ABs, as they’ll figure out some way to play one of them in left field.

Brett Jackson Speaking of the outfield, let’s talk about Brett Jackson. If you want some homework, you can read his scouting reports here, and here.

Jackson doesn’t really grade as a plus in any area, but is solidly above average across the board. He’s selective at the plate, but doesn’t have a great contact rate. He hits the ball hard, but not hard enough to clear the fences (he’ll cap out at 18-21 home runs). He’s good on the base paths, but not blazing fast (think 20ish steals). You get the idea.

He’ll play a solid center field, but he won’t stand out enough to be a perennial All Star. Instead, think about a solid career that flies just under the radar.

With Marlon Byrd, I would think that a June call up is likely.

I know this news, while good, isn’t enough to turn around the fortunes of Cubs fans. The Cubs are certainly still in rebuilding mode, but you’ll get to take a nice long look at the first couple of pieces of that plan within the next couple of months.

How to Fish for Trades Without Smelling Like Chum

By on May 9, 2012 in League Manager, Trades 5

Madison Bumgarner
Trading in fantasy baseball can be an art form. I’m sure we’ve all had mixed results. It may have been that you traded for a guy, only to have him hit the 60 DL the next day. Or maybe you were on the receiving end of a great haul!

Truth is, you have to make trades to win it all. I’m not sure there is a fantasy baseball player in the world who can draft a team to they ride all the way to first place. Moves need to be made to improve your team.

For the next 800 words or so we’re going to talk about how you can set the hook in other owners and consistently land the big fish in trades. But first we need to have a short lesson in self-awareness.

Like the high school girl that dropped her top during prom, each of us develop a reputation as fantasy baseball team owners. It’s that reputation that can allow you to have long term success in your fantasy baseball league or leave you mocked behind your back. So these tips aren’t for those looking to make a one time, big catch in the trading pool, but instead these tips are for those that want to understand how to have long term trading success, year after year.

1. Understand that you have to treat other owners fairly. This may seem obvious, and we all may feel like we do it (this is where self-awareness comes in), but often this is overlooked. Instead, it’s all too common that owners look to “pull a fast one” or “get something for nothing.” You all know what I’m talking about, and far too many of us are guilty.

The truth is that you might make trade with one owner this way, but he’ll never trade with you again, and nor should he. Former Braves GM John Schuerholz was famous for his straightforwardness in trades. If he wanted something big, he knew he had to give something big, and that diplomacy allowed him to have a long career without burning any bridges. He never smelled like chum because he never tried to do anything fishy in trades.

2. Don’t even offer ridiculous, low ball offers. Just last week someone wanted Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum for like three old french fries or something. I can’t even remember who was offered, I just remember that it was an insulting offer. And I do remember who offered it.

If you aren’t careful you’ll develop a bad reputation if you’re always pushing these fishy offers. Do you think it’s helpful to be known in your league as the guy who is always trying to steal All Stars with low ball offers? And do you think your league mates will make a deal with you later on, even if you do offer something fair this time around? Sure, you might luck out one time and hook a big one with an absurd low-ball offer, but you’ll never fish in that pond again. Continue Reading…

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